realignment: Big East edition

Here's some quick thoughts on the Big East wanting to go to 14 teams in football and hold a championship game.

(1) Who they have now: UConn, Rutgers, USF, Cincy and Louisville are full members.  Temple is an associate member in football starting this season.  They are adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, USF, and the rest of Temple athletics next season.  Boise State and San Diego State will join for football-only next season.  Navy will join for football-only in 2015.

Running totals: 2013 - 12.  2015 - 13.

(2) How do they plan on making divisions out of this dog's breakfast?  Navy, Temple, and UCF are all eastern teams.  Cincy and Louisville are less than 100 miles apart in a league that spans from Storrs to San Diego.  Same with UCF and USF, Temple and Rutgers.

This is the 2015 league divided by the Mississippi River:

East: UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Temple, Memphis, Navy (9)

West: Houston, SMU, Boise State, SDSU (4)

(3) This is what I think will happen:

East: UConn, Rutgers, USF, UCF, Navy, Temple...and either Army or Villanova.

West: Houston, SMU, Boise, SDSU, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati

I like Army to join over Villanova.  This preserves their annual game with Navy and Villanova has been wishy-washy about moving up for two years now.  There's no stadium or attendance issues in West Point.

(4) What will this do to the rest of the landscape?

A move to 14 puts the Big East with the same numbers as the SEC and ACC.  Both will remain ready to get picked apart by the 10 team Big 12.  Even bigger buyouts start to appear in conference bylaws.

The West will not really be affected until Air Force might be lured into an arrangement where a nine game conference schedule - with two permanent cross-conference opponents - is proposed.  The BE-West is a nice fit for them if they can wrangle permanent games with Army and Navy.  Navy will take Air Force and SDSU.  Army wouldn't mind playing in Houston or Dallas every other year.  Team #16 would be an East Coast team and there's several to choose from.  At that point, I think there would start to see the same tensions created by the WAC 16 team "project" and there would be a move to split again, this time over geographic lines.

The hole in the Mountain West could be filled by either of the independent teams or Texas State.  If Air Force wound up leaving, I could see the MWC taking all three of Idaho, NMSU, and TXST to create a 12 team conference and get a championship game.  I don't think UTEP is willing to bail on a division with Rice, UNT, and UTSA - they need the in-state exposure.  There's also a possibility that they would stay at 9.

As always, I'll keep an ear to the ground and let you know what's happening.