Preview: Utah State

Utah State University Aggies

Logan, Utah

Established: 1888

First football team: 1892

Undergraduates: 25,516

Fun fact: Gary Andersen is 1-0 versus Texas State, having led Southern Utah to a 31-28 victory in Cedar City on October 11^th, 2003.

Alums you’ve heard of: current Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada, former BYU coach LaVell Edwards, Redskins TE Chris Cooley, Eagles WR Kevin Curtis, deceased Pro/ College Football Hall of Famer (and actor) Merlin Olsen, NBA championship coach Dick Motta

Coach: Gary Andersen (15–22 at Utah State, entering 4^th season.  19-29 overall.)

2011 record: 5-7 (4-4 WAC, tied – 4th)

Rewind: The Aggies opened the 2011 campaign against defending national champion Auburn, minus Cam Newton and Nick Fairley.  Led by freshman QB Chuckie Keeton plus the two headed monster running back duo of Robert Turbin and Kerwynn Williams, Utah State was up 38-28 with just over three minutes remaining.  It took two scores and an onside kick recovery to bail out the Tigers.  Utah State, seeking their first winning season since 1996, suffered a crushing loss at Jordan-Hare to open their season (L, 42-38).

After a 54 point explosion over FCS Weber State (W, 54-17), the Aggies failed to complete a two-point conversion in overtime to fall at home to Colorado State (L, 35-34) and had Brigham Young on the ropes in Provo before allowing a touchdown with 11 seconds left in the fourth (L, 27-24).  For those following at home, that’s three losses – two in hostile territory – by a combined eight points.

Things starting clicking when Wyoming rolled into Logan, though Utah State were forced to climb out of an early 12-0 hole.  Keeton threw for four TD’s and the Aggie defense dominated the second half, while the offense scored a whopping 63 points, the program’s most since 1963 (W, 63-19).  Eleven penalties and a scoreless second half killed any chance of Utah State scoring their first win in 31 years at Fresno State (L, 31-21) and then they got to host Colby Cameron’s coming out party in a home loss to LA Tech (L, 24-17).

Please note that the Aggies are 2-5 at this point, and 0-2 in conference play. 

Halftime, Aloha Stadium.  Hawaii is up 28-7, scoring all four TD’s versus the Aggies in the second quarter.  With two minutes left in the 3^rd, the Warriors are winning 31-14.  Keeton’s on the bench with a sprained neck, and junior Adam Kennedy’s taking snaps.  The defense holds the Warriors to only a field goal in the second half and Kennedy leads three touchdown drives, one with fourteen ticks left on the game clock, to pull out a wild four point win (W, 35-31).

Kennedy gets the start at home versus San Jose State and the Aggies fall into a 20-7 hole after one quarter.  With eight minutes left in the game, Utah State is losing 33-21.  They’ve fumbled four times and missed a field goal.  Kennedy again leads the offense on two late scoring drives to pull out a victory, this time with the winning score coming with 47 seconds left (W, 34-33).

In the Kibbie Dome, the Aggies trade fumbles and touchdowns until Robert Turbin’s 3^rd touchdown on a 200-plus yard rushing day does the Vandals in after two overtimes (W, 49-42).  The defense knocks Nevada QB Cody Fajurdo out and the Aggies hold on against the Wolf Pack despite giving up 500 yards (W, 21-17).  Michael Smith and Turbin combine for over 200 yards and Kennedy hits Matt Austin with 35 seconds left to beat the other Aggies in Las Cruces (W, 24-21).

Five straight wins, all in conference, by single digits and decided late – a remarkable contrast to the beginning of the season.  They are 7-5 overall and 5-2 in league play.  The Utah State Aggies are bowl eligible for the first time since 1997, and only the third time in the last fifty years.  They head to Boise for the inaugural Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on the blue turf.  Utah State will face the Ohio Bobcats, 9-4 after defeat in the MAC championship game by Northern Illinois.  Their common opponent is New Mexico State, which Ohio beat in the season opener 44-24 in Las Cruces.

Not even 345 Aggie yards rushing with an average of seven yards a carry was enough to deny the Bobcats, who drove 60 yards with two minutes left to claim Ohio’s very first bowl title.  A QB keeper with thirteen seconds remaining provided the final margin (L, 24-23), leaving the 1993 Las Vegas Bowl as the only postseason hardware in the Aggie cabinet. 

Drafted in 2012: 3

LB Bobby Wagner, pick #47 (2-15), Seattle

RB Robert Turbin, pick #106 (4-11), Seattle

RB Michael Smith, pick #212 (5-7), Tampa Bay

Offensive starters lost (6): RB Robert Turbin (WAC Offensive Player of the Year), RB Michael Smith, TE Tarren Lloyd, OL Robert Hill, WR Matt Austin, OL Funaki Asisi.

Defensive starters lost (4): LB Bobby Wagner, DL Levi Koskan, DL Quinn Garner, LB Kyle Gallager.

Top returnees: QB Chuckie Keeton, QB Adam Kennedy, CB Jumanne Roberston, OL Tyler Larsen, OL Eric Schultz, OL Patrick Ward, LB Bojay Filimoeatu, CB Nevin Lawson, RB Kerwynn Williams, OL Oscar Molina-Sanchez, DL Al Lapuaho, DB McKade Brady, P Tyler Bennett, TE Kellen Bartlett, DB Gavin Jones, DB Brian Suite, LB/DE Terrell Thompson, OL Bryce Walker

2012 outlook:  Hey, a quarterback controversy!  The eighth ranked rushing attack in the country resulted in two NFL draftees, and a lot of handing off for Kennedy during his 4-1 run last season.  Kennedy, a former Rivals three-star from San Joaquin Delta CC (CA), is going to really have to step up to keep Keeton off the field.  You might be wondering how a Houston kid that started as a true freshman wound up all the way in Logan.  Answer?  The local Aggies (and TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, and UCLA) wanted him to switch to defense.  Keeton’s taken advantage of his first collegiate offseason to put on ten pounds of muscle and drop his 40 time below 4.5.

Either way, Utah State’s not going into the national champion’s den with a freshman QB next season.  They’ll have a beastly trip to Madison and Big Ten champ Wisconsin, and a renewal of a 110 year rivalry with Utah of the Pac-12 (at home), but coach Gary Andersen has to love his team’s schedule for next season – no matter who is under center.  They will really miss Wagner and Turbin.  Lowly Utah State had TWO guys come off the board before anyone was drafted from the Florida Gators or the Texas Longhorns.  Put another way, the Aggies had more draftees (3) than the rest of the 2012 conference combined (2).  They have some glaring holes to fill, and Wagner’s leadership on defense is a giant hole that needs filling.  More on that later.

The Aggies will switch to the spread to accommodate Keeton, and will have more of a pro-style package if Kennedy is playing.  Kerwynn Williams will step in to play running back and four returning linemen had at least one start last season.  JC OL transfer Patrick Ward should start as well.  Clutch receivers Chuck Jacobs and native Texan Stanley Morrison return, and I expect 6’5” JC transfer Alex Wheat to step in immediately.  For a team losing six starters including the conference offensive MVP, the Aggies are extremely well set to recover and improve.  Much was smart recruiting but I think even more was Andersen and newly promoted offensive coordinator Matt Wells installing more packages.  I believe they got a little “addition by subtraction” when former playcaller Dave Baldwin left for Colorado State.  Wells is a former Utah State quarterback that has learned from some high octane guys at Tulsa (Graham, Kragthorpe) and Louisville (Petrino).  With a weapon like Keeton to play with, I expect to see a radically different offense this season.

I won’t mince words – that offense better be high octane because this defense is a diesel.  It’s slow, but hard working and solid.  In fact, this might be the slowest defense I’ve ever seen at the FBS level.  It’s amazing that an old defensive coach like Andersen doesn’t recruit faster players on this side of the ball.  Losing three-time all 1^st team WAC LB Bobby Wagner is going to hurt.  As stated earlier, it’s going to be very tough to replace someone at this level that was a top-50 NFL draftee.  Koskan and Garner filled the middle admirably, and Wagner’s running buddy at LB - Kyle Gallager – will be missed. Bojay Filimoeatu is a converted DE that is capable but playing out of position.  None of the Aggie secondary could outrun Chuckie Keeton.  Film doesn’t lie, and DB Jumanne Roberston doesn’t run a 4.4.  Neither does Nevin Lawson or Brian Suite.   I’m just not impressed from what I watched, heard, and read.  However, they do get to play five of the worst teams in FBS – Idaho, UNLV, New Mexico State, Texas State, and UTSA. I think some warts will be hidden.

Tyler Bennett is probably the best punter in the WAC and Kerwynn Williams is one of the top two or three returnmen.  Josh Thompson is a perfectly average kicker and is accurate out to 48-50 yards.  They won’t cost you any games but I’m not sure any of these guys can win you one.

Best Case Scenario?  We get The Chuckie Show.  Keeton morphs into a shorter version of Cam Newton and all eyes are on him after the Aggies upset Utah.  A comeback comes up just short in Madison as the Badgers overpower the smaller Aggies.  The week off heals the dinged Utah State lines up enough to polish off their old offensive coordinator in Fort Collins, and the Aggies pound Vegas at home.

Chuckie walks out of Provo with a win, an unofficial Utah state title, and national respect.  The Spartans’ D gets overwhelmed in San Jose the next week.  A stretch with New Mexico State, UTSA, and Texas State shows not to be a problem.  Louisiana Tech torches the slow defense as Keeton keeps his team in a wildly entertaining game, and Utah State scores on their last possession to stun the Dawgs in Ruston.  Idaho shows not to be a problem and the best Aggie football season since 1972 ends with a win in a Potato Bowl rematch with Ohio. 

Other side of the coin?  Kennedy beats out Keeton, who publicly announces his desire to transfer back to Texas.  They start 2-3 before losing by 40 to Brigham Young.  San Jose pounds them up the week after the Coogs do, and they narrowly escape New Mexico State.  The Aggies muster enough to beat UTSA in the dome, and some hope is in place after they get their fourth win against Texas State.  Louisiana Tech hangs 70 on that slow defense and breaks the teams psyche, and then they show no heart in a home loss to Idaho.

2012 Schedule
Aug. 30 Southern Utah (W)
Sept. 7 Utah (L)
Sept. 15 @ Wisconsin (L)
Sept. 22 @ Colorado State (W)
Sept. 29 UNLV (W)
Oct. 5 @ BYU (L)
Oct. 13 @ San Jose State (W)
Oct. 20 New Mexico State (W)
Oct. 27 @ UTSA (W)
Nov. 3 Texas State (W)
Nov. 17 @ Louisiana Tech (L)
Nov. 24 Idaho (W)

My pick: 8-4, 5-1 WAC (2nd)