Le Blog. By me.: August 2012

Friday, August 31, 2012

realignment: Big East edition

Here's some quick thoughts on the Big East wanting to go to 14 teams in football and hold a championship game.

(1) Who they have now: UConn, Rutgers, USF, Cincy and Louisville are full members. Temple is an associate member in football starting this season. They are adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, USF, and the rest of Temple athletics next season. Boise State and San Diego State will join for football-only next season. Navy will join for football-only in 2015.

Running totals: 2013 - 12. 2015 - 13.

(2) How do they plan on making divisions out of this dog's breakfast? Navy, Temple, and UCF are all eastern teams. Cincy and Louisville are less than 100 miles apart in a league that spans from Storrs to San Diego. Same with UCF and USF, Temple and Rutgers.

This is the 2015 league divided by the Mississippi River:

East: UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Temple, Memphis, Navy (9)

West: Houston, SMU, Boise State, SDSU (4)

(3) This is what I think will happen:

East: UConn, Rutgers, USF, UCF, Navy, Temple...and either Army or Villanova.

West: Houston, SMU, Boise, SDSU, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati

I like Army to join over Villanova. This preserves their annual game with Navy and Villanova has been wishy-washy about moving up for two years now. There's no stadium or attendance issues in West Point.

(4) What will this do to the rest of the landscape?

A move to 14 puts the Big East with the same numbers as the SEC and ACC. Both will remain ready to get picked apart by the 10 team Big 12. Even bigger buyouts start to appear in conference bylaws.

The West will not really be affected until Air Force might be lured into an arrangement where a nine game conference schedule - with two permanent cross-conference opponents - is proposed. The BE-West is a nice fit for them if they can wrangle permanent games with Army and Navy. Navy will take Air Force and SDSU. Army wouldn't mind playing in Houston or Dallas every other year. Team #16 would be an East Coast team and there's several to choose from. At that point, I think there would start to see the same tensions created by the WAC 16 team "project" and there would be a move to split again, this time over geographic lines.

The hole in the Mountain West could be filled by either of the independent teams or Texas State. If Air Force wound up leaving, I could see the MWC taking all three of Idaho, NMSU, and TXST to create a 12 team conference and get a championship game. I don't think UTEP is willing to bail on a division with Rice, UNT, and UTSA - they need the in-state exposure. There's also a possibility that they would stay at 9.

As always, I'll keep an ear to the ground and let you know what's happening.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Pick 'em: Issac Edition

Wednesday's the best day of the week for me to break these out, so here goes:

(I use Caesar's lines since if I was in Vegas, I'd be at their sportsbook)

WAC

UTSA +6.5 @ South Alabama
-- That half point makes all the difference. I don't think either team is much better or worse than each other, and fully anticipate the Runners to cover. South Alabama 24, UTSA 21.

SJSU +26 @ Stanford
-- I think Stanford is a little overlooked in a league with USC and Oregon, and this is a pretty good spread. I'll take the Cardinal here. Stanford 49, SJSU 20.

Texas State +37 @ Houston
-- The Bobcats are using two QB's and trying to keep up with the Cougar air attack on defense. That said, this isn't 2010 anymore. Houston 42, Texas State 31.

LA Tech (vs Texas A&M) is postponed until October 13th. NMSU (vs Sac State), Idaho (vs EWU), and USU (vs SUU) were not listed.

Sun Belt

Troy -6 @ UAB
-- Each team only won three games last season and I don't think Troy's improved so much that they deserve to give six away playing on the road instate. I think they'll win, but probably in a sloppy game decided by a field goal. Troy 13, UAB 10.

UNT + 43 @ LSU
-- This will be one of the ugliest games of the season. Then again, the Bayou Bengals only beat FCS Northwestern State by 43 last season. I think this defense will try for a shutout and fall slightly short. LSU 51, UNT 3.

FIU +3.5 @ Duke
-- Duke's a little better than most people think and FIU lost NFL-level talent. The Panthers will get better but I think this one's a goner. Duke 24, FIU 17.

Arkansas State +37 @ Oregon
-- I love this one. Malzahn knows Oregon and game-planned for them for over a month in 2010 at Auburn, and now he had an off-season to do it. They won't win, but the Red Wolves are going to add to their fan base in a very entertaining contest. Oregon 48, Arkansas State 31.

Florida Atlantic (v Wagner), ULL (v Lamar), MTSU (vs McNeese), and WKU (vs Austin Peay) weren't listed. ULM has a bye week.

video dump, 8/29

South Alabama head coach Joey Jones on Brando yesterday

NMSU press conference from yesterday

More with NMSU coach Walker

Franchione's press conference (Texas State)

KTSW talks to Franchione

Tyler Mayforth (@smdrtyler) addresses TXST QB's Rutherford and Arndt

Sunday, August 26, 2012

I can't wait for the Boise/ Sparty game on Friday...

Friday, August 24, 2012

video dump, 8/24

2012 FAU opener (guys, the on air "talent" is worth the click)

Some helpful advice for wagering on WAC games...

Texas State's Brant Freeman talks to WR Isaiah Battle

A good look inside New Mexico State athletics

NMSU assistant coaches mic'ed up in practice

Nearing the end of camp for Idaho

A very well done fan video for Troy

Preview: Utah State

Utah State University Aggies

Logan, Utah

Established: 1888

First football team: 1892

Undergraduates: 25,516

Fun fact: Gary Andersen is 1-0 versus Texas State, having led Southern Utah to a 31-28 victory in Cedar City on October 11^th, 2003.

Alums you’ve heard of: current Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada, former BYU coach LaVell Edwards, Redskins TE Chris Cooley, Eagles WR Kevin Curtis, deceased Pro/ College Football Hall of Famer (and actor) Merlin Olsen, NBA championship coach Dick Motta

Coach: Gary Andersen (15–22 at Utah State, entering 4^th season. 19-29 overall.)

2011 record: 5-7 (4-4 WAC, tied – 4th)

Rewind: The Aggies opened the 2011 campaign against defending national champion Auburn, minus Cam Newton and Nick Fairley. Led by freshman QB Chuckie Keeton plus the two headed monster running back duo of Robert Turbin and Kerwynn Williams, Utah State was up 38-28 with just over three minutes remaining. It took two scores and an onside kick recovery to bail out the Tigers. Utah State, seeking their first winning season since 1996, suffered a crushing loss at Jordan-Hare to open their season (L, 42-38).

After a 54 point explosion over FCS Weber State (W, 54-17), the Aggies failed to complete a two-point conversion in overtime to fall at home to Colorado State (L, 35-34) and had Brigham Young on the ropes in Provo before allowing a touchdown with 11 seconds left in the fourth (L, 27-24). For those following at home, that’s three losses – two in hostile territory – by a combined eight points.

Things starting clicking when Wyoming rolled into Logan, though Utah State were forced to climb out of an early 12-0 hole. Keeton threw for four TD’s and the Aggie defense dominated the second half, while the offense scored a whopping 63 points, the program’s most since 1963 (W, 63-19). Eleven penalties and a scoreless second half killed any chance of Utah State scoring their first win in 31 years at Fresno State (L, 31-21) and then they got to host Colby Cameron’s coming out party in a home loss to LA Tech (L, 24-17).

Please note that the Aggies are 2-5 at this point, and 0-2 in conference play.

Halftime, Aloha Stadium. Hawaii is up 28-7, scoring all four TD’s versus the Aggies in the second quarter. With two minutes left in the 3^rd, the Warriors are winning 31-14. Keeton’s on the bench with a sprained neck, and junior Adam Kennedy’s taking snaps. The defense holds the Warriors to only a field goal in the second half and Kennedy leads three touchdown drives, one with fourteen ticks left on the game clock, to pull out a wild four point win (W, 35-31).

Kennedy gets the start at home versus San Jose State and the Aggies fall into a 20-7 hole after one quarter. With eight minutes left in the game, Utah State is losing 33-21. They’ve fumbled four times and missed a field goal. Kennedy again leads the offense on two late scoring drives to pull out a victory, this time with the winning score coming with 47 seconds left (W, 34-33).

In the Kibbie Dome, the Aggies trade fumbles and touchdowns until Robert Turbin’s 3^rd touchdown on a 200-plus yard rushing day does the Vandals in after two overtimes (W, 49-42). The defense knocks Nevada QB Cody Fajurdo out and the Aggies hold on against the Wolf Pack despite giving up 500 yards (W, 21-17). Michael Smith and Turbin combine for over 200 yards and Kennedy hits Matt Austin with 35 seconds left to beat the other Aggies in Las Cruces (W, 24-21).

Five straight wins, all in conference, by single digits and decided late – a remarkable contrast to the beginning of the season. They are 7-5 overall and 5-2 in league play. The Utah State Aggies are bowl eligible for the first time since 1997, and only the third time in the last fifty years. They head to Boise for the inaugural Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on the blue turf. Utah State will face the Ohio Bobcats, 9-4 after defeat in the MAC championship game by Northern Illinois. Their common opponent is New Mexico State, which Ohio beat in the season opener 44-24 in Las Cruces.

Not even 345 Aggie yards rushing with an average of seven yards a carry was enough to deny the Bobcats, who drove 60 yards with two minutes left to claim Ohio’s very first bowl title. A QB keeper with thirteen seconds remaining provided the final margin (L, 24-23), leaving the 1993 Las Vegas Bowl as the only postseason hardware in the Aggie cabinet.

Drafted in 2012: 3

LB Bobby Wagner, pick #47 (2-15), Seattle

RB Robert Turbin, pick #106 (4-11), Seattle

RB Michael Smith, pick #212 (5-7), Tampa Bay

Offensive starters lost (6): RB Robert Turbin (WAC Offensive Player of the Year), RB Michael Smith, TE Tarren Lloyd, OL Robert Hill, WR Matt Austin, OL Funaki Asisi.

Defensive starters lost (4): LB Bobby Wagner, DL Levi Koskan, DL Quinn Garner, LB Kyle Gallager.

Top returnees: QB Chuckie Keeton, QB Adam Kennedy, CB Jumanne Roberston, OL Tyler Larsen, OL Eric Schultz, OL Patrick Ward, LB Bojay Filimoeatu, CB Nevin Lawson, RB Kerwynn Williams, OL Oscar Molina-Sanchez, DL Al Lapuaho, DB McKade Brady, P Tyler Bennett, TE Kellen Bartlett, DB Gavin Jones, DB Brian Suite, LB/DE Terrell Thompson, OL Bryce Walker

2012 outlook: Hey, a quarterback controversy! The eighth ranked rushing attack in the country resulted in two NFL draftees, and a lot of handing off for Kennedy during his 4-1 run last season. Kennedy, a former Rivals three-star from San Joaquin Delta CC (CA), is going to really have to step up to keep Keeton off the field. You might be wondering how a Houston kid that started as a true freshman wound up all the way in Logan. Answer? The local Aggies (and TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, and UCLA) wanted him to switch to defense. Keeton’s taken advantage of his first collegiate offseason to put on ten pounds of muscle and drop his 40 time below 4.5.

Either way, Utah State’s not going into the national champion’s den with a freshman QB next season. They’ll have a beastly trip to Madison and Big Ten champ Wisconsin, and a renewal of a 110 year rivalry with Utah of the Pac-12 (at home), but coach Gary Andersen has to love his team’s schedule for next season – no matter who is under center. They will really miss Wagner and Turbin. Lowly Utah State had TWO guys come off the board before anyone was drafted from the Florida Gators or the Texas Longhorns. Put another way, the Aggies had more draftees (3) than the rest of the 2012 conference combined (2). They have some glaring holes to fill, and Wagner’s leadership on defense is a giant hole that needs filling. More on that later.

The Aggies will switch to the spread to accommodate Keeton, and will have more of a pro-style package if Kennedy is playing. Kerwynn Williams will step in to play running back and four returning linemen had at least one start last season. JC OL transfer Patrick Ward should start as well. Clutch receivers Chuck Jacobs and native Texan Stanley Morrison return, and I expect 6’5” JC transfer Alex Wheat to step in immediately. For a team losing six starters including the conference offensive MVP, the Aggies are extremely well set to recover and improve. Much was smart recruiting but I think even more was Andersen and newly promoted offensive coordinator Matt Wells installing more packages. I believe they got a little “addition by subtraction” when former playcaller Dave Baldwin left for Colorado State. Wells is a former Utah State quarterback that has learned from some high octane guys at Tulsa (Graham, Kragthorpe) and Louisville (Petrino). With a weapon like Keeton to play with, I expect to see a radically different offense this season.

I won’t mince words – that offense better be high octane because this defense is a diesel. It’s slow, but hard working and solid. In fact, this might be the slowest defense I’ve ever seen at the FBS level. It’s amazing that an old defensive coach like Andersen doesn’t recruit faster players on this side of the ball. Losing three-time all 1^st team WAC LB Bobby Wagner is going to hurt. As stated earlier, it’s going to be very tough to replace someone at this level that was a top-50 NFL draftee. Koskan and Garner filled the middle admirably, and Wagner’s running buddy at LB - Kyle Gallager – will be missed. Bojay Filimoeatu is a converted DE that is capable but playing out of position. None of the Aggie secondary could outrun Chuckie Keeton. Film doesn’t lie, and DB Jumanne Roberston doesn’t run a 4.4. Neither does Nevin Lawson or Brian Suite. I’m just not impressed from what I watched, heard, and read. However, they do get to play five of the worst teams in FBS – Idaho, UNLV, New Mexico State, Texas State, and UTSA. I think some warts will be hidden.

Tyler Bennett is probably the best punter in the WAC and Kerwynn Williams is one of the top two or three returnmen. Josh Thompson is a perfectly average kicker and is accurate out to 48-50 yards. They won’t cost you any games but I’m not sure any of these guys can win you one.

Best Case Scenario? We get The Chuckie Show. Keeton morphs into a shorter version of Cam Newton and all eyes are on him after the Aggies upset Utah. A comeback comes up just short in Madison as the Badgers overpower the smaller Aggies. The week off heals the dinged Utah State lines up enough to polish off their old offensive coordinator in Fort Collins, and the Aggies pound Vegas at home.

Chuckie walks out of Provo with a win, an unofficial Utah state title, and national respect. The Spartans’ D gets overwhelmed in San Jose the next week. A stretch with New Mexico State, UTSA, and Texas State shows not to be a problem. Louisiana Tech torches the slow defense as Keeton keeps his team in a wildly entertaining game, and Utah State scores on their last possession to stun the Dawgs in Ruston. Idaho shows not to be a problem and the best Aggie football season since 1972 ends with a win in a Potato Bowl rematch with Ohio.

Other side of the coin? Kennedy beats out Keeton, who publicly announces his desire to transfer back to Texas. They start 2-3 before losing by 40 to Brigham Young. San Jose pounds them up the week after the Coogs do, and they narrowly escape New Mexico State. The Aggies muster enough to beat UTSA in the dome, and some hope is in place after they get their fourth win against Texas State. Louisiana Tech hangs 70 on that slow defense and breaks the teams psyche, and then they show no heart in a home loss to Idaho.

2012 Schedule
Aug. 30 Southern Utah (W)
Sept. 7 Utah (L)
Sept. 15 @ Wisconsin (L)
Sept. 22 @ Colorado State (W)
Sept. 29 UNLV (W)
Oct. 5 @ BYU (L)
Oct. 13 @ San Jose State (W)
Oct. 20 New Mexico State (W)
Oct. 27 @ UTSA (W)
Nov. 3 Texas State (W)
Nov. 17 @ Louisiana Tech (L)
Nov. 24 Idaho (W)

My pick: 8-4, 5-1 WAC (2nd)

Podcast

Last night I sat in on the Coker Chronicles (UTSA) podcast. Link is here if you'd like to listen in.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Introducing...

TogaMan and AfroMan from the University of South Alabama.

Preview: San Jose State

San Jose State University Spartans

San Jose, California

Established: 1857

First football team: 1893

Undergraduates: 26,796

Fun fact: Bill Walsh and Dick Vermeil played for the Spartans in the 50’s. That makes SJSU one of only three schools to have multiple Super Bowl winning coaches.

Alums you’ve heard of: former NFL QB Jeff Garcia, Lindsey Buckingham and Stevie Nicks of Fleetwood Mac, competitive eater Joey Chestnut, deceased former Astro (and NL MVP) Ken Caminiti, Olympic sprinter and gold medalist Tommie Smith (of gloved Black Power salute fame)

Coach: Mike MacIntyre (6-19, entering 3^rd season)

2011 record: 5-7 (4-4 WAC, tied – 4th)

Rewind: The scheduling gods weren't too friendly to the young Spartans in 2011, opening at BCS-bound Stanford (L, 57-3) and at the Cardinal's Pac-12 mate UCLA (L, 27-17). Nevada then came to town for their final WAC opener and prevailed (W, 17-14). SJSU finally shook off the beatings and beat New Mexico State (W, 34-24) and Colorado State in Fort Collins (W, 38-31), their first road win since November 2008.

Then things started getting strange. BYU overcame three turnovers in their win in Provo (L, 29-16) to put SJSU at 2-4, 1-1 in conference play. I watched one of the ugliest games I think I've ever seen the following week, a twelve turnover slopfest versus the dearly departed Hawaii Warriors. Six of those came by the Spartans in the second half, allowing Hawaii to come back from a 20-7 hole to a 21-20 lead by the time the fourth quarter rolled around. Hawaii scored again to make it 27-20, but then Duke Ihenacho of SJSU ran a blocked PAT back despite a terrible cramp to cut it to 27-22. Then some more turnovers happened, as expected. Two missed field goals, a punt, and a fumble later, something magical occurred.

With 36 seconds left on the clock, senior QB Matt Faulkner hit WR Chandler Jones on a 37 yard touchdown (W, 28-27) to complete an 87 yard drive, tying their longest of the season to date. San Jose State, winners of three games total over the two seasons prior, had won three of their last four.

After giving up 500 yards and 38 points in three quarters, the Spartans lost in Ruston (L,38-28) to the eventual conference champion LA Tech Bulldogs. SJSU scored the first twenty and last seven points versus Idaho, but are outscored 32-2 in between (L, 32-29). Kicker Jens Alvernik set a Spartan record with four field goals and San Jose was up over Utah State in Logan 33-21 with five minutes left, and gave up the 13 points necessary to lose, the last on a 21 yard pass with less than a minute remaining (L, 34-33). At this point, they are assured of a losing record as 3-4 slid to 3-7.

A 465 yard offensive explosion carried SJSU to a win over Navy (W, 27-24) and a ball controlling ground game’s final drive of 2011 ended any chance Fresno State had of a comeback (W, 27-24), sending the hated Bulldogs into the Mountain West with a loss. This finished the Spartans season at 5-7, their best finish since a 6-6 season in 2008.

Drafted in 2012: 0 (Duke Ihenacho signed a free agent deal with the Broncos.)

Offensive starters lost: 6 (QB Matt Faulkner, RB Brandon Rutley, OL Fred Koloto, OL Moa Ngatuvi)

Defensive starters lost: 7 (DB Duke Ihenacho, CB Peyton Thompson, DE Mohamed Marah, CB Brandon Driver, DT Ja'Rodd Watson, DT Pablo Garcia)

Top returnees: TE Ryan Otten, WR Noel Grigsby, OL David Quessenberry, LB Keith Smith, RB De’Leon Eskridge, OL Nicholas Kaspar, WR Jabari Carr, DT Anthony Larceval, WR Chandler Jones, DT Travis Johnson, CB Ronnie Yell, OL Nicholas Kasper, LB Vince Buhagiar, S James Orth, WR Jabari Carr, RB Tyler Ervin, OG Moa Ngatuvai

2012 outlook: San Jose has the best tight end in the conference (Otten), a guy who led the Big Ten’s Minnesota Golden Gophers in rushing (Eskridge), and a man who caught 89 balls last year (Grigsby). Who’s going to get them the ball?

Another alum of the Big Ten Conference was supposed to play quarterback for the 2012 Spartans: Tate Forcier, formerly of the Michigan Wolverines. Apparently he’d rather hold a clipboard and get paid in Hamilton, Ontario. Coach Mac has some options, the best looking like transfer QB David Fales of Monterey Peninsula College. The former Nevada signee will have a daunting task ahead of him. MacIntyre is known for being a demanding coach and there’s three other non-incumbents hell bent on taking this job. Fales should hold on, however.

Both lines are thin, and the Spartans did not take the juco route, opting to try and bulk up some glaringly light high school players. One lineman signee, Fernando Villanueva, chose to stay home over offers from Pac 12 schools. He’s probably the best bet to help out immediately. The 6-foot-6, 280-pound three-star prospect’s size is only rivaled on the enrolled offensive line by David Quessenberry.

The loss of Duke Ihenacho in the secondary will be felt immediately. He was the first San Jose State football player to earn first-team All-Western Athletic Conference honors three times (2008, 2009, and 2011). The Spartans have to replace three starters in the defensive backfield. From what I can see, the talent is there to do so but the void in leadership on defense has to be made up somewhere. My money is on LB Vince Buhagiar, whom I believe will play on Sundays in a couple of years.

This is a good year for them to be their last in the WAC as the league has never been this week, with the Spartans having to rebuild under center and both lines. I think they’ll struggle with Stanford, Utah State and Louisiana Tech. They should be able to beat UC-Davis, UTSA, Texas State, Idaho, and New Mexico State. I’m of the opinion that they might catch Brigham Young off their game a bit at Spartan Stadium, but I don’t think SJSU’s quite there yet.

One last thought. If MacIntyre leads this team to an 8 win season in 2012, he’s gone. He played for his dad at Vanderbilt and then Georgia Tech in the 80’s, Mac’s recruiting prowess is well known from his days in the SEC and ACC, and this is his first job west of Dallas. I believe he’ll return to Duke as head coach after they fire David Cutcliffe. Coach Mac‘s a Southern boy that turned around his first program he’s been the head coach at in a 20-plus year career. He’s part of the Parcells coaching tree and has position experience on both sides of the ball.

Best Case Scenario? Fales steps in and does a better job than Faulkner ever dreamed of doing. Duct tape and some tough love in the weight room by Strength & Conditioning Coach Dave Forman fix these lines well enough to handle the depleted WAC. After losing by ten in the opener to Stanford, they catch fire and scorch Davis and Colorado State. A physical game at San Diego State results in a grind-it-out win, and the defense bottles up the option in Annapolis. Suddenly, the white-hot Spartans surprise Utah State and tear through four teams picked at the bottom of the league. They take revenge from the BYU game of a season ago to get to 10-1 before a gigantic mid-major showdown with Louisiana Tech to end each school’s final WAC football season. They bow out after a much closer than expected game with the Bulldogs in front of 32,000 fans at Spartan Stadium. The rebirth of Spartan Fever leads to a berth in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco after the ACC declines to send an opponent cross country.

Other side of the coin? MacIntyre never settles on a quarterback after Fales shows inconsistency, injuries cause him to burn redshirts on woefully unprepared freshmen, and San Jose regresses back to their time when they won three games in two years. They would be 2-5 after narrowly winning in the Alamodome versus the Baby Birds, and then finish the string with five straight losses. Students go back to wearing Cal and Stanford gear, and watch the Niners and the Raiders on Sundays.

2012 Schedule
Sept. 1 @ Stanford (L)
Sept. 8 UC-Davis (W)
Sept. 15 Colorado State (W)
Sept. 22 @ San Diego State (L)
Sept. 29 @ Navy (W)
Oct. 13 Utah State (L)
Oct. 20 @ UTSA (W)
Oct. 27 Texas State (W)
Nov. 3 @ Idaho (W)
Nov. 10 @ New Mexico State (W)
Nov. 17 BYU (L)
Nov. 24 LA Tech (L)

My pick: 7-5, 4-2 WAC (3^rd)