Is Texas State in Play?

Texas State, UTSA, and North Texas are candidates if this is a 24 team league. I fully expect it to be. You need twelve teams to have a league championship game (a "Semifinal", if you will), and since this is a new league, they will need the approval of 3/4ths of membership to vote someone in. That is now 12 members. A team in Colorado will have the same amount of pull as a team in West Virginia toward expansion into Florida.

Texas is able to house teams in both of the middle divisions so it will probably raise the least amount of objections from such far-flung membership. Over half of the Alliance signed a 2012 recruit from the state. I think there are some very good Sun Belt programs like MTSU and Troy that will be left out of the Alliance because they aren't sexy enough names to the West or even to proud schools like Rice or Southern Miss. Those are my two wild cards. If one of them get in you can blow this entire thing up and start over.

I'd like to think that Texas State would have the support of Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, Air Force, UTEP, Wyoming, and New Mexico. That's 7/12.

The MWC side has nine teams and the CUSA side has seven. My current projection is for the West to add Utah State, San Jose State, and Texas State. I expect the East to add LA Tech, North Texas, one of FIU or FAU, Temple (football only), and UTSA. This will create a divisional setup as follows:

Pacific Division	Mountain Division	Central Division	Eastern Division
San Jose State	Air Force	Rice	East Carolina
Hawaii*	Colorado State	Tulane	Marshall
Fresno State	New Mexico	Tulsa	Southern Miss
Nevada	UTEP	La Tech	UAB
UNLV	Wyoming	North Texas	FIU/FAU
Utah State	Texas State	UTSA	Temple*

*Football Only
I think it is very likely Air Force leaves in two seasons for the Big East. When that happens, I expect UTSA to move to the Mountain division, Southern Miss to the Central, and the candidate to come from the East Coast. By then, Charlotte and Georgia State will have a couple of seasons under their belts and bring good markets into play.

As far as the WAC goes, I expect the Belt to readmit former members Idaho, Denver, and New Mexico State - plus offer UT Arlington membership. Seattle would apply for the WCC and one of the oldest conferences in the country would cease to exist. Boise would probably look toward the Big Sky for non-football athletics.

I put the odds of something close to this happening at 40%.

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Another scenario would have the Sun Belt and MAC raided along with the WAC with a different twist on the outcome for the WAC.

Pacific Division	Mountain Division	Central Division	Eastern Division
San Jose State	Air Force	Rice	East Carolina
Hawaii*	Colorado State	Tulane	Marshall
Fresno State	New Mexico	Tulsa	Buffalo
Nevada	UTEP	UAB	FIU
UNLV	Wyoming	Mid Tenn/Troy/Western Kentucky	FAU
Utah State	North Texas	Southern Miss	Temple*

*Football Only
The reeling WAC and Sun Belt then look to merge, and join an alliance with the MAC.

Idaho	Arkansas State	Akron	Ball State
New Mexico State	Louisiana-Lafayette	Bowling Green	Central Michigan
Texas state	Louisiana-Monroe	Kent State	Eastern Michigan
UTSA	South Alabama	Miami (OH)	Northern Illinois
La Tech	Mid Tenn/Western Ken/TU	Ohio	UMass
TBD (UTA?)	Mid Tenn/Western Ken/TU	Toledo	Western Michigan

All current WAC non-football full members would be folded into this along with UALR of the Sun Belt.

I put the odds of this happening (or something similar) at 30%.

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Finally, I have a doomsday scenario. What if the Alliance just brought back their former WAC-mates and added the Florida Belt schools?

Pacific Division	Mountain Division	Central Division	Eastern Division
San Jose State	Air Force	Rice	East Carolina
Hawaii*	Colorado State	Tulane	Marshall
Fresno State	New Mexico	Tulsa	UAB
Nevada	UTEP/New Mexico St	La Tech	FIU
UNLV	Wyoming	New Mexico St /UTEP	FAU
Utah State	Idaho	Southern Miss	Temple*

*Football Only
It's not the end of the world as Texas State would probably help shore up a tighter Sun Belt. They can still partner up with the MAC and eventually add Lamar, and "save" UT Arlington if they decide to revive football.

Arkansas State
Lamar
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Southern Alabama
Texas State
UTA
UTSA
Troy
Western Kentucky

Odds of something close to this, in my opinion? 20%.

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I'm saving that last 10% for something unexpected, like the alliance staying at 20.

I've gone on record multiple times that I like the WAC and outside an almost-certain pounding by LA Tech in 2012, I like Texas State's chances in the depleted conference. It's a great place to incubate a program and the Bobcats should be competitive sooner rather than later. In my mind, these are the three most likely scenarios for Texas State and the new Alliance.