A bad day for New Mexico State

Preview: UTSA

Disclaimer: I wrote this a little over a week ago.

University of Texas at San Antonio

San Antonio, TX

Established: 1969

First football team: 2011

Undergraduates: 26,377

Fun fact: UTSA, despite being in their second year of play, will have seven seniors on their roster: RB Richard Mendoza, DE Lekenwic Haynes, P Parker Cundiff, DB Sean Luchnick, LB Brandon Reeves, DT Franky Anaya, and OG Patrick Hoog.  Hoog went to Oklahoma State originally, Hayes to Ole Miss, Luchnick to Penn State, and Anaya and Reeves to Pierce JC in California.  Anaya has a giant Roadrunner logo tattooed to his ass.

Alums you’ve heard of: sports reporter Michelle Beadle, former NBA player Devin Brown

Coach: Larry Coker (64-21 overall, 4-6 at UTSA, entering second season)

2011 record: 4-6

Rewind:  There’s really only two numbers that matter when we’re talking about UTSA: 35,521 and 56,743.  That’s their average attendance and opening game attendance, in order.  Both set NCAA records for a startup and punched their ticket to Conference USA.  The Runners run a 4-2-5 defense and a three-wide, one-back offense.  I found different things to be important than how many they won or lost – you’ll read about it.

UTSA hopped on the back of Eric Soza (237 passing, 102 rushing, 3 total TD’s) to crush Larry Coker’s alma mater, Division II Northeastern State (W, 31-3), in their inaugural game.  487 yards of offense wasn’t enough to get past Division III McMurry, as the Warhawks scored a their only passing TD of the game with sixteen seconds left (L, 24-21) after returning a blocked punt earlier that quarter.  For a matter of perspective, McMurry won a D3 playoff game in 2011 and was laden with seniors, and was coached by former Kentucky and New Mexico State head man Hal Mumme.  UTSA had fourteen players over 20 years of age playing in their second football game.

The Baby Birds first road trip was to Cedar City, Utah – home of the Thunderbirds from FCS Southern Utah.  After the Runners scored first, the Thunderbirds reeled off 38 straight points and won going away (L, 45-22).  Southern Utah would finish 6-5 on the year.  UTSA returned back to the Alamodome to face the NAIA Bacone College Warriors and was up 41-0 at the half.  This would wind up being a rout that virtually the entire roster got playing time in (W, 54-7).

Sam Houston, ranked #16 in FCS, harassed Soza into three interceptions and held the Runners under 30 yards rushing – with two fumbles and a safety - in a loss in Huntsville (L, 22-7).  UTSA is 2-3 at this point, with the first of two games that I believe actually meant something coming up – a home game against fellow transitional South Alabama.  The USA Jaguars were one year ahead of them in the process, and were 19-2 against a similar schedule of opponents.  They finally had their first taste of FBS play the two games prior, competitive losses at North Carolina State and at Kent State.

The Jaguars and the Roadrunners traded blows the entire contest, with no team ever opening up larger than a seven point lead.  A scoreless fourth quarter brought overtime for the first time for each program.  I believe this was Soza’s finest game of the year from the clips I have seen and what I have read.  He didn’t throw any interceptions,  led the team in rushing, and showed some real moxie.  However, in the second overtime, the Birds were forced to settle for a field goal, and South Alabama ran in a touchdown on their first play in the period (L, 30-27).

In California to play UC-Davis, UTSA is down 38-3 before Soza hits on two late TD passes, not enough to prevent another loss to an FCS team, their third of the season (L, 38-17).  In their bye week, UTSA’s next opponent, Georgia State, beat South Alabama 27-20 in overtime.  GSU’s Panthers and USA’s Jags are in the same timeframe in the transition.  I think this game should be looked back upon as this team’s finest accomplishment of their young existence.

Georgia State was up 14-0, after a 97 yard drive and a long pass on third down.  Soza manages to regroup and get his kicker into range before half time.  The UTSA defense holds GSU scoreless in the second half and they get exactly as much as they need.  They block a field goal, and Soza leads an eighty yard drive to get it to 14-9, and passes for the two-point conversion.  GSU misses a long field goal, and UTSA kicks a 30 yarder to tie the game with 24 seconds left.  GSU actually loses yardage and misses a long field goal in overtime on the first possession, and the Runners float in a 30 yarder to win (W, 17-14).  The three fledgling programs all took each other to overtime, and all split their contests.

UTSA struggles with another FCS team, McNeese State in Lake Charles.  They do manage to tighten it up late but it wasn’t enough (L, 24-21).  Finally, they blow out Division II Minot State at home before 32,000 in the Alamodome to close out a pretty satisfying 4-6 first season(W, 49-7).   

2012 outlook:  UTSA is going to do something without precedent.  They are going to play an FBS schedule (for the most part) one year after their first year of competition.  I can’t lie – I think they’ll get their teeth kicked in.  The cherry on the sundae is that they lost one of their best players.  DE Marlon Smith for whatever reason is not a Runner anymore.  I can’t explain properly how crippling this is.  Smith was somewhere between the best and third best player on this team. Therefore…

I like Soza, I like LB Steven Kurfels.  That’s about it.  The University of Texas at San Antonio is improving, but the giant leap being taken here is daunting.  I’m not being mean, petty, or anything like that to a perceived rival.  I’ve watched film, viewed “Birth of a Program”, and outside of the Cokerverse, I bet I know more about the Runners than anyone out there.  I will say this – what they lack in talent, they try their best to make up for in heart.  And speaking of talent, what they have attracted since taking the field is much better than they had before.

This presents a problem. Does Coker redshirt many freshmen since this season is kind of meaningless, or does he put the best team he can on the field?   

They beat Georgia State and lost to South Alabama.  I’m tossing the rest of the 2011 schedule out of the window to look how they would improve and beat both this season.

UTSA has never won a road game. Their best RB is 5’6” and 160 pounds, and their returning leading rusher gained 326 yards last season.  These kids are going to have to go to Ruston and play Louisiana Tech!

I think their best bet is to start freshman Treston Coleman from Day One at running back.   Soza is comfortable and is much better than I ever imagined he’d be.  He’s got moxie and a stylish little game, and the offense completely belongs to him.  It’s funny how well matters turned out for him.  He might get to be mayor of San Antonio one day.  The line is what it is.  I like OT Josh Walker and I think they should start Alex Delgado from Boerne as a freshman at left tackle.  Hopefully Walker and OG Cody Harris put on some weight.

There’s a possible replacement for Marlon Smith in freshman Brendon Brinkmann, but otherwise, we’re talking about the weakest part of one of the worst teams in FBS – the defensive line.  Coker needs to juco up before joining Conference USA in 2013.  Let’s just say this is a unit with a lot of heart, and there’s help coming soon.  I think.

Freshmen CB Trey Rosser and S Charles Wort should start immediately.  Both provide significant upgrades.  UTSA does have strength at linebacker.  Kurfels is the Soza of the Runner defense and Brandon Reeves isn’t too shabby.  Kurfels, if he can stay healthy, should be UTSA’s lone first team all WAC selection.  CB Erik Brown came home from Fresno State and is a serviceable defender – him, Rosser, Wort, S Eric Berry, and S Erik Waters is about as good as they can get.

Best Case Scenario?  There’s no reason UTSA can’t start the season 4-0, even with trips to Atlanta and Mobile.  Rice and New Mexico State are single-digit losses.  They survive the murderer’s row of San Jose State, Utah State, and that dreaded trip to Ruston without significant injuries, then beat McNeese in the Dome.  They fight hard against Idaho and Texas State and actually improve from 2011 to finish 5-7.

Other side of the coin?  They lose to South Alabama, come home and knock off A&M-Commerce, lose to Georgia State, then squeak by Northwestern Oklahoma State.  UTSA then proceeds to lose their final eight games, some in spectacular fashion.

2012 Schedule

Sept. 1 @ South Alabama (L)
Sept. 8 Texas A&M-Commerce (W)
Sept. 15 @ Georgia State (W)
Sept. 22 Northwestern Oklahoma State (W)
Sept. 29 @ New Mexico State (L)
Oct. 13 @ Rice (L)
Oct. 20 San Jose State (L)
Oct. 27 Utah State (L)
Nov. 3 @ Louisiana Tech (L)
Nov. 10 McNeese State (W)
Nov. 17 @ Idaho (L)
Nov. 24 Texas State (L)

My pick: 4-8

Photos of LA Tech, Alabama, and Auburn

Earlier this summer I took a trip to Atlanta and back with the publishers of the LA Tech and ULM Rivals sites.  This is some of the shots I took on the trip.

You can follow them on Twitter @BleedTechBlue and @WarhawkReport.

Alabama

Auburn

LA Tech

Videos from Sun Belt media day

Behind the scenes at the SBC media day.

ULL coach Mark Hunspeth

Arkansas State QB Ryan Aplin

MTSU DE Omar McClendon

Arkansas State head coach Gus Malzahn

ULM head coach Todd Berry

WKU TE Jack Doyle

FIU coach Mario Cristobal

Troy head coach Larry Blankenship

ULL QB Blaine Gaultier

COX Sports Sun Belt Preview

Video from WAC Media Day, etc

 

 The WAC fifty year anniversary video.

 

 UTSA head coach Larry Coker, QB Eric Soza, and LB Steven Kurfels.

Utah State head coach Gary Andersen, WR Matt Austin and LB Bojay Filimoeatu

SJSU head coach Mike MacIntyre and OT David Quessenberry

Texas State head coach Dennis Franchione, RB Marcus Curry and CB Darryl Morris

NMSU head coach DeWayne Walker, QB Andrew Manley, and DE Donte Savage

LA Tech head coach Sonny Dykes, DB Chad Boyd and QB Colby Cameron

Idaho head coach Robb Akey, WR Mike Scott and CB Aaron Grymes

Commissioner Jeff Hurd

Texas State to join Sun Belt in 2013

Multiple sources have confirmed to the BobcatReport staff that Texas State will join the Sun Belt Conference for the 2013 season from their soon-to-be future league, the Western Athletic Conference.

The Bobcats, one of seven universities competing in the WAC for the 2012 season, will defect from the Denver-based league along with UT San Antonio (CUSA), Utah State (MWC), and San Jose State (MWC).

Texas State is expected to replace North Texas in the Sun Belt, also reported to be joining Conference USA with UTSA. Georgia State was recently added to the Sun Belt for the 2013 season from the Football Championship Subdivision. The Sun Belt also expects to lose Florida International to CUSA.

The 2013 Sun Belt, led by longtime WAC commissioner Karl Benson, will consist of 2011 champion Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Florida International, Georgia State, and Texas State. Longtime member Arkansas-Little Rock does not compete in football.

Realignment News?

Do you want the good news or the bad news first? Well, since I can't predict the future, I get to pick.

There's a posted meeting for the UT System Board of Regents for the 12th. I have been trying to figure out what it is since the middle of last month. UT has steadfastly refused to release what the subject matter is until Monday the 9th.

Well, UTSA has very publicly started lobbying for Alliance membership, specifically the CUSA side. That's thrown a wrench into the plans of Karl Benson and the Sun Belt, whom I believe was ready to offer them membership next week at the same time he was formally going to offer Georgia State.

What does this mean for Texas State? Well, one school's loss is another one's gain. I am working my rear off here but I believe Texas State is next up for the Belt. I don't have a timeframe on when we should expect this but it's in the works.

There's a ton of details to be worked out, like exit fees and other nonsense. You're not going to hear a peep out of the administration or the Sun Belt. This has been very hard to track down.

Texas State and Georgia State would join the Sun Belt for 2013.

Now, the bad news. Texas State is a potential candidate for the Mountain West Conference if they go to 12 teams. They might do it now, they might wait a year. Either way, they are going to expand to more than 8 or 9 with the addition of UTEP. If Texas State joins the Sun Belt, they will probably be saddled with a huge buyout if they want to leave. I'm talking BCS conference size, if not greater. They'll already have to pay exit fees to the WAC on top of everything else. Benson is acutely aware of the financial aspect involved.

The longer the wait until an announcement, the better Texas State looks in the eyes of the Mountain West. Members like Wyoming and New Mexico covet the location between Austin and San Antonio for recruiting purposes. The problem here is that they still might lose another member and not want anyone at State's level to join until 2015. CUSA's television contract dictates that they are to have a championship game, so they're a little more hard pressed for members before the '13 season. The two conferences are working together to ensure stability so I believe CUSA's roster will be filled first. There's schools ahead of Texas State in line for the MWC, such as San Jose State and Utah State.

How patient is Texas State going to be? I have no idea.