WAC
Utah -7 @ Utah State
-- They both torched Big Sky competition last week, but I think Chuckie's just getting started. I think they win at home in a very close one. I think they'll cover either way. USU 27, Utah 24
NMSU +21 @ Ohio
-- This has been sitting in the back of my mind as a potential upset all week, but I think Ohio probably is a better team as of this upcoming Saturday. The Aggies won at Minnesota and at New Mexico last season so they aren't allergic to the road. Should cover. Ohio 31, NMSU 21.
Idaho +16 @ Bowling Green
Sniff test: BGSU hung with Florida at the Swamp and Idaho got throttled by FCS Eastern Washington at home. I don't even think Dominique Blackmon at QB is enough to compensate here. BGSU 28, Idaho 3.
Texas Tech -16 @ Texas State
I've been saying all week we don't really know anything about Texas State or Houston until this game and the Cougs tilt with LA Tech. That said, it's a home game, a new stadium debut, and it's coming off the Houston win. I'm not a believer yet, but I do think they can cover at home. Texas Tech 28, Texas State 21.
LA Tech -3 @ Houston
A rogue voter gave Texas State enough votes to be #35 in the AP Poll. LA Tech probably deserves to be higher. I think Houston might have some ads on Craigslist for football personnel come Sunday. LA Tech 48, Houston 10.
UTSA plays Texas A&M-Commerce and there's no line set for this game.
I'll post the Sun Belt odds separately tonight when I get home.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Premiere Podcast
My first WAC-centric podcast, done with Adam of Coker Chronicles, is up: PODCAST
Joe Bob says check it out.
Joe Bob says check it out.
Monday, September 3, 2012
Overreaction in Houston
In the aftermath of Texas State's tremendous win over the Houston Cougars, it was announced this morning that UH first year offensive coordinator Mike Nesbitt resigned/quit/fell on his sword/whatever. This was a terrible decision by the powers that be in Houston, and let me tell you why.
- Interim offensive coordinator Travis Bush is also in his first year, and any experience that he's had with an Air Raid offense comes from when he was hired in February.
- It reeks of desperation. What chance does this staff really have going into the LA Tech game this weekend? Last time the team played poorly, one of them was "fired".
- This is turning a teachable moment for the entire team at Houston, coaches included, into a blame game. Outside a miracle turnaround under Bush - highly doubtful - this entire season is tossed into the wind. Continuity was the name of the game when Nesbitt was brought in from SFA to coach the same offense that was already installed. That was cancelled after one performance.
- This staff might have had a chance to improve and win some league games, and build upon that for a debut in the Big East next season. Now if this season becomes a dumpster fire, and the anticipation of opening a new stadium in 2014 gets dampened, they're all gone. National coaching search, new offense and defense by a million dollar coach, lots of transfers, and good odds of being an afterthought for several years.
- Next two games? LA Tech's Air Raid and a trip to Pasadena to play a revived UCLA team. News flash: UH was starting 0-3 anyway after Saturday's performance, with two WAC losses. Sorry for your luck.
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Yesterday.
As you know, I watched both UTSA and Texas State win yesterday. Two very impressive wins. Let's get started.
UTSA put together a gameplan full of duct tape and baling wire, opened the offensive playbook wide, and found a way to scrap together a win. Twelve players got touches on offense. It seemed like Bennett was bound and determined to pick on Starling, but the Jaguars passed for less than 200 yards. A gaggle of timely turnovers and a very smart retooling of the depth chart offset a ridiculous amount of UTSA penalties. That created a wildly entertaining game and got a whole bunch of "firsts" out of the way.
(1) They pass the eye test. Sure, UTSA's first win in FBS was against another newbie. There was a lot of raw emotion that showed this game meant more to the players than any of the other crap we wax poetic about. But I watched Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, San Jose State, Texas State, and them play actual football games this week. UTSA fought through losing two defensive starters before getting on the plane and won on the road, which they've never done before. They're not a start-up anymore and none of this "first" shit needs to apply from this point forward.
(2) Personnel: They need to consider leaving Kurfels at rover and rolling with Terry and Reeves at linebacker. Wort can spell him. I loved the playcalling on offense, using certain players to do certain things. There were some notable gaffes but it was worth it to see what using the entire playbook can do. That leads to a lot of happy, contributing players. The OL took a while to congeal, while the DL wasn't very effective until the fourth quarter.
(3) Looking ahead: D2 A&M-Commerce is a tasty treat to start what should be a well-attended home schedule. FCS SC State crushed Georgia State 33-6 in the Georgia Dome, UTSA's third opponent. Then another D2 game with Northwestern Oklahoma State back in San Antonio. 4-0 going into New Mexico State for the Runners first WAC contest is a strong possibility.
This team is flawed and incomplete, a work in progress. Faith is usually a part of completing matters, and the epic highs and sudden lows they went through on Saturday are as well. The Baby Birds grew up on Saturday getting that win in muggy Mobile, and it doesn't really matter that it was against one of the worst teams in the country when they're playing in a conference full of them.
One last thing: I'm writing the backstory for why I think they need to keep playing if you didn't know: South Alabama is a year ahead of UTSA and a Sun Belt team this season. They came to San Antonio last season and UTSA kicker Ianno's gamewinning kick is blocked. They lose and wind up under .500 for the year.
The same situation comes up this year and Ianno has probably kicked this a million times in his head, and it doesn't matter that it's 52 yards away, two days after a tropical storm, on 110 degree eight year old Fieldturf in 90% humidity for the fourth time of the day. That thing was good from 62.
--
The funny thing about the Texas State game is how it was executed. I remember talking to Justin about how we would gameplan Houston in 2010. We'd run the ball almost every play, change formations and run down the play clock constantly, and keep that damn Air Raid off the field. That's not exactly what happened - Rutherford was 8-9 in the first quarter alone - but the Bobcats finished with 52 carries for 248 yards, and held the ball for nearly three quarters worth of football.
The statement made by shutting down Houston was different from UTSA's "arrival". This was a feature, a showing of Texas State football to people that pay attention to football outside the scrub ranks. As my buddy at the top in the yellow shirt says, "Texas State could be the next Boise State." We laughed, as he says that about everyone in any of his prior and current leagues. Say it again, Karl, because people want to hear you. This was about believing it after watching something Boise might have done in their first years of the climb.
(1) Fran's back, folks. Houston was held to 13 points or below for the first time since September 18th, 2010. I wondered why Terrance Broadway was the backup QB at ULL and not at Houston, because it became clear that Piland isn't nearly as good as the next heir to the revived Houston statgod quarterback dynasty needed to be. This was exploited by the secondary's regular abuse of the Cougar receivers. Texas State played a tough, fast, physical football team - and roughed them up.
(2) I think it's finally clear why Fran is never going to name a starting quarterback. Rutherford is durable enough to take 20-something hits a game plus run upfield, and now he beat Houston. Shaun will start for the rest of the season unless he is injured or until he fucks up. I think asking him to be both a quarterback and a running back when he was more suited to be a wide receiver was a bad idea last season. I think Rutherford caught a couple of breaks but he's much, much more improved than I thought he would be. More on this at the bottom.
(3) Bigger, faster, stronger, sure. Different? Yeah. It's hard to believe that Texas State looked like were going to wreck Houston until they lined up. I noticed something from my illegal Eastern European stream. Curry ran past the Houston defense. The secondary was outright violent to those Houston receivers. The line held up. And for all the talk of needing a second year for Fran's system to work, there's a true freshman from Alabama starting at WR. I think it's because of something else.
Does anyone remember how Sam Houston came out of nowhere running that goofy offense with the Wildcat as the base formation last season? Didn't last night's game sort of look like that - with new coach Jeff Conway at offensive coordinator? Oh, the irony. Bob Debeese, the former Bobcat head coach and alum, ran that offense at Sam Houston, with Conway as assistant head coach. He's now the offensive coordinator at New Mexico, probably the worst program in the country. They pounded FCS Southern last night 66-21 using two quarterbacks. One was a 6'4" 230 lb freshman that ran 8 times for 88 yards and only threw twice, the other a two year starter that threw nine times and ran only twice. The backs had 51 carries for 347 yards.
Sam Houston went from unranked to the FCS title game using a 5'10" guy from Galveston as the Wildcat, Richard Sincere, making for an unlikely All-American and Southland Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2011. I think this version of the Franchione spread offensapalooza now shares some of the same elements, but instead of putting a WR as the Wildcat, they're using Rutherford.
--
Watched some Lamar and some Alabama but I couldn't take my eyes off the Texas State game. It was just so unexpected, so quirky and fascinating. I had a great day of football and got to watch two upsets by two teams that combined I probably know more about than any other human being. Yesterday was just so damn important to those teams. Texas State gets another chance at Cinderella next week, in what will probably be the most critical game in school history. UTSA? All I can tell you there is that team isn't going to finish last in the WAC and will almost certainly start the year 4-0, and I'd guess six is a worthwhile goal.
UTSA put together a gameplan full of duct tape and baling wire, opened the offensive playbook wide, and found a way to scrap together a win. Twelve players got touches on offense. It seemed like Bennett was bound and determined to pick on Starling, but the Jaguars passed for less than 200 yards. A gaggle of timely turnovers and a very smart retooling of the depth chart offset a ridiculous amount of UTSA penalties. That created a wildly entertaining game and got a whole bunch of "firsts" out of the way.
(1) They pass the eye test. Sure, UTSA's first win in FBS was against another newbie. There was a lot of raw emotion that showed this game meant more to the players than any of the other crap we wax poetic about. But I watched Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, San Jose State, Texas State, and them play actual football games this week. UTSA fought through losing two defensive starters before getting on the plane and won on the road, which they've never done before. They're not a start-up anymore and none of this "first" shit needs to apply from this point forward.
(2) Personnel: They need to consider leaving Kurfels at rover and rolling with Terry and Reeves at linebacker. Wort can spell him. I loved the playcalling on offense, using certain players to do certain things. There were some notable gaffes but it was worth it to see what using the entire playbook can do. That leads to a lot of happy, contributing players. The OL took a while to congeal, while the DL wasn't very effective until the fourth quarter.
(3) Looking ahead: D2 A&M-Commerce is a tasty treat to start what should be a well-attended home schedule. FCS SC State crushed Georgia State 33-6 in the Georgia Dome, UTSA's third opponent. Then another D2 game with Northwestern Oklahoma State back in San Antonio. 4-0 going into New Mexico State for the Runners first WAC contest is a strong possibility.
This team is flawed and incomplete, a work in progress. Faith is usually a part of completing matters, and the epic highs and sudden lows they went through on Saturday are as well. The Baby Birds grew up on Saturday getting that win in muggy Mobile, and it doesn't really matter that it was against one of the worst teams in the country when they're playing in a conference full of them.
One last thing: I'm writing the backstory for why I think they need to keep playing if you didn't know: South Alabama is a year ahead of UTSA and a Sun Belt team this season. They came to San Antonio last season and UTSA kicker Ianno's gamewinning kick is blocked. They lose and wind up under .500 for the year.
The same situation comes up this year and Ianno has probably kicked this a million times in his head, and it doesn't matter that it's 52 yards away, two days after a tropical storm, on 110 degree eight year old Fieldturf in 90% humidity for the fourth time of the day. That thing was good from 62.
--
The funny thing about the Texas State game is how it was executed. I remember talking to Justin about how we would gameplan Houston in 2010. We'd run the ball almost every play, change formations and run down the play clock constantly, and keep that damn Air Raid off the field. That's not exactly what happened - Rutherford was 8-9 in the first quarter alone - but the Bobcats finished with 52 carries for 248 yards, and held the ball for nearly three quarters worth of football.
The statement made by shutting down Houston was different from UTSA's "arrival". This was a feature, a showing of Texas State football to people that pay attention to football outside the scrub ranks. As my buddy at the top in the yellow shirt says, "Texas State could be the next Boise State." We laughed, as he says that about everyone in any of his prior and current leagues. Say it again, Karl, because people want to hear you. This was about believing it after watching something Boise might have done in their first years of the climb.
(1) Fran's back, folks. Houston was held to 13 points or below for the first time since September 18th, 2010. I wondered why Terrance Broadway was the backup QB at ULL and not at Houston, because it became clear that Piland isn't nearly as good as the next heir to the revived Houston statgod quarterback dynasty needed to be. This was exploited by the secondary's regular abuse of the Cougar receivers. Texas State played a tough, fast, physical football team - and roughed them up.
(2) I think it's finally clear why Fran is never going to name a starting quarterback. Rutherford is durable enough to take 20-something hits a game plus run upfield, and now he beat Houston. Shaun will start for the rest of the season unless he is injured or until he fucks up. I think asking him to be both a quarterback and a running back when he was more suited to be a wide receiver was a bad idea last season. I think Rutherford caught a couple of breaks but he's much, much more improved than I thought he would be. More on this at the bottom.
(3) Bigger, faster, stronger, sure. Different? Yeah. It's hard to believe that Texas State looked like were going to wreck Houston until they lined up. I noticed something from my illegal Eastern European stream. Curry ran past the Houston defense. The secondary was outright violent to those Houston receivers. The line held up. And for all the talk of needing a second year for Fran's system to work, there's a true freshman from Alabama starting at WR. I think it's because of something else.
Does anyone remember how Sam Houston came out of nowhere running that goofy offense with the Wildcat as the base formation last season? Didn't last night's game sort of look like that - with new coach Jeff Conway at offensive coordinator? Oh, the irony. Bob Debeese, the former Bobcat head coach and alum, ran that offense at Sam Houston, with Conway as assistant head coach. He's now the offensive coordinator at New Mexico, probably the worst program in the country. They pounded FCS Southern last night 66-21 using two quarterbacks. One was a 6'4" 230 lb freshman that ran 8 times for 88 yards and only threw twice, the other a two year starter that threw nine times and ran only twice. The backs had 51 carries for 347 yards.
Sam Houston went from unranked to the FCS title game using a 5'10" guy from Galveston as the Wildcat, Richard Sincere, making for an unlikely All-American and Southland Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2011. I think this version of the Franchione spread offensapalooza now shares some of the same elements, but instead of putting a WR as the Wildcat, they're using Rutherford.
--
Watched some Lamar and some Alabama but I couldn't take my eyes off the Texas State game. It was just so unexpected, so quirky and fascinating. I had a great day of football and got to watch two upsets by two teams that combined I probably know more about than any other human being. Yesterday was just so damn important to those teams. Texas State gets another chance at Cinderella next week, in what will probably be the most critical game in school history. UTSA? All I can tell you there is that team isn't going to finish last in the WAC and will almost certainly start the year 4-0, and I'd guess six is a worthwhile goal.
Friday, August 31, 2012
realignment: Big East edition
Here's some quick thoughts on the Big East wanting to go to 14 teams in football and hold a championship game.
(1) Who they have now: UConn, Rutgers, USF, Cincy and Louisville are full members. Temple is an associate member in football starting this season. They are adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, USF, and the rest of Temple athletics next season. Boise State and San Diego State will join for football-only next season. Navy will join for football-only in 2015.
Running totals: 2013 - 12. 2015 - 13.
(2) How do they plan on making divisions out of this dog's breakfast? Navy, Temple, and UCF are all eastern teams. Cincy and Louisville are less than 100 miles apart in a league that spans from Storrs to San Diego. Same with UCF and USF, Temple and Rutgers.
This is the 2015 league divided by the Mississippi River:
East: UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Temple, Memphis, Navy (9)
West: Houston, SMU, Boise State, SDSU (4)
(3) This is what I think will happen:
East: UConn, Rutgers, USF, UCF, Navy, Temple...and either Army or Villanova.
West: Houston, SMU, Boise, SDSU, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati
I like Army to join over Villanova. This preserves their annual game with Navy and Villanova has been wishy-washy about moving up for two years now. There's no stadium or attendance issues in West Point.
(4) What will this do to the rest of the landscape?
A move to 14 puts the Big East with the same numbers as the SEC and ACC. Both will remain ready to get picked apart by the 10 team Big 12. Even bigger buyouts start to appear in conference bylaws.
The West will not really be affected until Air Force might be lured into an arrangement where a nine game conference schedule - with two permanent cross-conference opponents - is proposed. The BE-West is a nice fit for them if they can wrangle permanent games with Army and Navy. Navy will take Air Force and SDSU. Army wouldn't mind playing in Houston or Dallas every other year. Team #16 would be an East Coast team and there's several to choose from. At that point, I think there would start to see the same tensions created by the WAC 16 team "project" and there would be a move to split again, this time over geographic lines.
The hole in the Mountain West could be filled by either of the independent teams or Texas State. If Air Force wound up leaving, I could see the MWC taking all three of Idaho, NMSU, and TXST to create a 12 team conference and get a championship game. I don't think UTEP is willing to bail on a division with Rice, UNT, and UTSA - they need the in-state exposure. There's also a possibility that they would stay at 9.
As always, I'll keep an ear to the ground and let you know what's happening.
(1) Who they have now: UConn, Rutgers, USF, Cincy and Louisville are full members. Temple is an associate member in football starting this season. They are adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, USF, and the rest of Temple athletics next season. Boise State and San Diego State will join for football-only next season. Navy will join for football-only in 2015.
Running totals: 2013 - 12. 2015 - 13.
(2) How do they plan on making divisions out of this dog's breakfast? Navy, Temple, and UCF are all eastern teams. Cincy and Louisville are less than 100 miles apart in a league that spans from Storrs to San Diego. Same with UCF and USF, Temple and Rutgers.
This is the 2015 league divided by the Mississippi River:
East: UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Temple, Memphis, Navy (9)
West: Houston, SMU, Boise State, SDSU (4)
(3) This is what I think will happen:
East: UConn, Rutgers, USF, UCF, Navy, Temple...and either Army or Villanova.
West: Houston, SMU, Boise, SDSU, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati
I like Army to join over Villanova. This preserves their annual game with Navy and Villanova has been wishy-washy about moving up for two years now. There's no stadium or attendance issues in West Point.
(4) What will this do to the rest of the landscape?
A move to 14 puts the Big East with the same numbers as the SEC and ACC. Both will remain ready to get picked apart by the 10 team Big 12. Even bigger buyouts start to appear in conference bylaws.
The West will not really be affected until Air Force might be lured into an arrangement where a nine game conference schedule - with two permanent cross-conference opponents - is proposed. The BE-West is a nice fit for them if they can wrangle permanent games with Army and Navy. Navy will take Air Force and SDSU. Army wouldn't mind playing in Houston or Dallas every other year. Team #16 would be an East Coast team and there's several to choose from. At that point, I think there would start to see the same tensions created by the WAC 16 team "project" and there would be a move to split again, this time over geographic lines.
The hole in the Mountain West could be filled by either of the independent teams or Texas State. If Air Force wound up leaving, I could see the MWC taking all three of Idaho, NMSU, and TXST to create a 12 team conference and get a championship game. I don't think UTEP is willing to bail on a division with Rice, UNT, and UTSA - they need the in-state exposure. There's also a possibility that they would stay at 9.
As always, I'll keep an ear to the ground and let you know what's happening.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Pick 'em: Issac Edition
Wednesday's the best day of the week for me to break these out, so here goes:
(I use Caesar's lines since if I was in Vegas, I'd be at their sportsbook)
WAC
UTSA +6.5 @ South Alabama
-- That half point makes all the difference. I don't think either team is much better or worse than each other, and fully anticipate the Runners to cover. South Alabama 24, UTSA 21.
SJSU +26 @ Stanford
-- I think Stanford is a little overlooked in a league with USC and Oregon, and this is a pretty good spread. I'll take the Cardinal here. Stanford 49, SJSU 20.
Texas State +37 @ Houston
-- The Bobcats are using two QB's and trying to keep up with the Cougar air attack on defense. That said, this isn't 2010 anymore. Houston 42, Texas State 31.
LA Tech (vs Texas A&M) is postponed until October 13th. NMSU (vs Sac State), Idaho (vs EWU), and USU (vs SUU) were not listed.
Sun Belt
Troy -6 @ UAB
-- Each team only won three games last season and I don't think Troy's improved so much that they deserve to give six away playing on the road instate. I think they'll win, but probably in a sloppy game decided by a field goal. Troy 13, UAB 10.
UNT + 43 @ LSU
-- This will be one of the ugliest games of the season. Then again, the Bayou Bengals only beat FCS Northwestern State by 43 last season. I think this defense will try for a shutout and fall slightly short. LSU 51, UNT 3.
FIU +3.5 @ Duke
-- Duke's a little better than most people think and FIU lost NFL-level talent. The Panthers will get better but I think this one's a goner. Duke 24, FIU 17.
Arkansas State +37 @ Oregon
-- I love this one. Malzahn knows Oregon and game-planned for them for over a month in 2010 at Auburn, and now he had an off-season to do it. They won't win, but the Red Wolves are going to add to their fan base in a very entertaining contest. Oregon 48, Arkansas State 31.
Florida Atlantic (v Wagner), ULL (v Lamar), MTSU (vs McNeese), and WKU (vs Austin Peay) weren't listed. ULM has a bye week.
(I use Caesar's lines since if I was in Vegas, I'd be at their sportsbook)
WAC
UTSA +6.5 @ South Alabama
-- That half point makes all the difference. I don't think either team is much better or worse than each other, and fully anticipate the Runners to cover. South Alabama 24, UTSA 21.
SJSU +26 @ Stanford
-- I think Stanford is a little overlooked in a league with USC and Oregon, and this is a pretty good spread. I'll take the Cardinal here. Stanford 49, SJSU 20.
Texas State +37 @ Houston
-- The Bobcats are using two QB's and trying to keep up with the Cougar air attack on defense. That said, this isn't 2010 anymore. Houston 42, Texas State 31.
LA Tech (vs Texas A&M) is postponed until October 13th. NMSU (vs Sac State), Idaho (vs EWU), and USU (vs SUU) were not listed.
Sun Belt
Troy -6 @ UAB
-- Each team only won three games last season and I don't think Troy's improved so much that they deserve to give six away playing on the road instate. I think they'll win, but probably in a sloppy game decided by a field goal. Troy 13, UAB 10.
UNT + 43 @ LSU
-- This will be one of the ugliest games of the season. Then again, the Bayou Bengals only beat FCS Northwestern State by 43 last season. I think this defense will try for a shutout and fall slightly short. LSU 51, UNT 3.
FIU +3.5 @ Duke
-- Duke's a little better than most people think and FIU lost NFL-level talent. The Panthers will get better but I think this one's a goner. Duke 24, FIU 17.
Arkansas State +37 @ Oregon
-- I love this one. Malzahn knows Oregon and game-planned for them for over a month in 2010 at Auburn, and now he had an off-season to do it. They won't win, but the Red Wolves are going to add to their fan base in a very entertaining contest. Oregon 48, Arkansas State 31.
Florida Atlantic (v Wagner), ULL (v Lamar), MTSU (vs McNeese), and WKU (vs Austin Peay) weren't listed. ULM has a bye week.
video dump, 8/29
South Alabama head coach Joey Jones on Brando yesterday
NMSU press conference from yesterday
More with NMSU coach Walker
Franchione's press conference (Texas State)
KTSW talks to Franchione
Tyler Mayforth (@smdrtyler) addresses TXST QB's Rutherford and Arndt
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Friday, August 24, 2012
video dump, 8/24
2012 FAU opener (guys, the on air "talent" is worth the click)
Some helpful advice for wagering on WAC games...
Texas State's Brant Freeman talks to WR Isaiah Battle
A good look inside New Mexico State athletics
NMSU assistant coaches mic'ed up in practice
Nearing the end of camp for Idaho
A very well done fan video for Troy
Preview: Utah State
Utah State University Aggies
Logan, Utah
Established: 1888
First football team: 1892
Undergraduates: 25,516
Fun fact: Gary Andersen is
1-0 versus Texas State, having led Southern Utah to a 31-28 victory in Cedar
City on October 11th, 2003.
Alums you’ve heard of: current
Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada, former BYU coach LaVell Edwards,
Redskins TE Chris Cooley, Eagles WR Kevin Curtis, deceased Pro/ College
Football Hall of Famer (and actor) Merlin Olsen, NBA championship coach Dick
Motta
Coach: Gary
Andersen (15–22 at Utah State, entering 4th season. 19-29 overall.)
2011 record: 5-7
(4-4 WAC, tied – 4th)
Rewind: The Aggies opened the
2011 campaign against defending national champion Auburn, minus Cam Newton and
Nick Fairley. Led by freshman QB Chuckie
Keeton plus the two headed monster running back duo of Robert Turbin and Kerwynn
Williams, Utah State was up 38-28 with just over three minutes remaining. It took two scores and an onside kick
recovery to bail out the Tigers. Utah
State, seeking their first winning season since 1996, suffered a crushing loss
at Jordan-Hare to open their season (L, 42-38).
After a 54 point explosion
over FCS Weber State (W, 54-17), the Aggies failed to complete a two-point
conversion in overtime to fall at home to Colorado State (L, 35-34) and had
Brigham Young on the ropes in Provo before allowing a touchdown with 11 seconds
left in the fourth (L, 27-24). For those
following at home, that’s three losses – two in hostile territory – by a
combined eight points.
Things starting clicking when
Wyoming rolled into Logan, though Utah State were forced to climb out of an
early 12-0 hole. Keeton threw for four TD’s
and the Aggie defense dominated the second half, while the offense scored a
whopping 63 points, the program’s most since 1963 (W, 63-19). Eleven penalties and a scoreless second half
killed any chance of Utah State scoring their first win in 31 years at Fresno
State (L, 31-21) and then they got to host Colby Cameron’s coming out party in
a home loss to LA Tech (L, 24-17).
Please note that the Aggies
are 2-5 at this point, and 0-2 in conference play.
Halftime, Aloha Stadium. Hawaii is up 28-7, scoring all four TD’s
versus the Aggies in the second quarter.
With two minutes left in the 3rd, the Warriors are winning
31-14. Keeton’s on the bench with a
sprained neck, and junior Adam Kennedy’s taking snaps. The defense holds the Warriors to only a
field goal in the second half and Kennedy leads three touchdown drives, one
with fourteen ticks left on the game clock, to pull out a wild four point win
(W, 35-31).
Kennedy gets the start at
home versus San Jose State and the Aggies fall into a 20-7 hole after one
quarter. With eight minutes left in the
game, Utah State is losing 33-21.
They’ve fumbled four times and missed a field goal. Kennedy again leads the offense on two late
scoring drives to pull out a victory, this time with the winning score coming
with 47 seconds left (W, 34-33).
In the Kibbie Dome, the
Aggies trade fumbles and touchdowns until Robert Turbin’s 3rd
touchdown on a 200-plus yard rushing day does the Vandals in after two
overtimes (W, 49-42). The defense knocks
Nevada QB Cody Fajurdo out and the Aggies hold on against the Wolf Pack despite
giving up 500 yards (W, 21-17). Michael
Smith and Turbin combine for over 200 yards and Kennedy hits Matt Austin with
35 seconds left to beat the other Aggies in Las Cruces (W, 24-21).
Five straight wins, all in
conference, by single digits and decided late – a remarkable contrast to the
beginning of the season. They are 7-5
overall and 5-2 in league play. The Utah
State Aggies are bowl eligible for the first time since 1997, and only the
third time in the last fifty years. They
head to Boise for the inaugural Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on the blue turf. Utah State will face the Ohio Bobcats, 9-4
after defeat in the MAC championship game by Northern Illinois. Their common opponent is New Mexico State,
which Ohio beat in the season opener 44-24 in Las Cruces.
Not even 345 Aggie yards
rushing with an average of seven yards a carry was enough to deny the Bobcats,
who drove 60 yards with two minutes left to claim Ohio’s very first bowl
title. A QB keeper with thirteen seconds
remaining provided the final margin (L, 24-23), leaving the 1993 Las Vegas Bowl
as the only postseason hardware in the Aggie cabinet.
Drafted in 2012: 3
LB Bobby Wagner, pick #47
(2-15), Seattle
RB Robert Turbin, pick #106
(4-11), Seattle
RB Michael Smith, pick #212
(5-7), Tampa Bay
Offensive starters lost (6): RB
Robert Turbin (WAC Offensive Player of the Year), RB Michael Smith, TE Tarren
Lloyd, OL Robert Hill, WR Matt Austin, OL Funaki Asisi.
Defensive starters lost (4): LB
Bobby Wagner, DL Levi Koskan, DL Quinn Garner, LB Kyle Gallager.
Top returnees: QB
Chuckie Keeton, QB Adam Kennedy, CB Jumanne Roberston,
OL Tyler Larsen, OL Eric Schultz, OL Patrick Ward,
LB Bojay Filimoeatu, CB Nevin Lawson, RB Kerwynn Williams, OL Oscar
Molina-Sanchez, DL Al Lapuaho, DB McKade Brady, P Tyler
Bennett, TE Kellen Bartlett, DB Gavin Jones, DB Brian Suite, LB/DE
Terrell Thompson, OL Bryce Walker
2012 outlook: Hey, a quarterback controversy! The eighth ranked rushing attack in the
country resulted in two NFL draftees, and a lot of handing off for Kennedy
during his 4-1 run last season. Kennedy,
a former Rivals three-star from San Joaquin Delta CC (CA), is going to really
have to step up to keep Keeton off the field.
You might be wondering how a Houston kid that started as a true freshman
wound up all the way in Logan.
Answer? The local Aggies (and
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, and UCLA) wanted him to switch to defense. Keeton’s taken advantage of his first collegiate
offseason to put on ten pounds of muscle and drop his 40 time below 4.5.
Either way, Utah State’s not
going into the national champion’s den with a freshman QB next season. They’ll have a beastly trip to Madison and Big
Ten champ Wisconsin, and a renewal of a 110 year rivalry with Utah of the
Pac-12 (at home), but coach Gary Andersen has to love his team’s schedule for
next season – no matter who is under center.
They will really miss Wagner and Turbin.
Lowly Utah State had TWO guys come off the board before anyone was
drafted from the Florida Gators or the Texas Longhorns. Put another way, the Aggies had more draftees
(3) than the rest of the 2012 conference combined (2). They have some glaring holes to fill, and
Wagner’s leadership on defense is a giant hole that needs filling. More on that later.
The Aggies will switch to the
spread to accommodate Keeton, and will have more of a pro-style package if
Kennedy is playing. Kerwynn Williams
will step in to play running back and four returning linemen had at least one
start last season. JC OL transfer
Patrick Ward should start as well. Clutch
receivers Chuck Jacobs and native Texan Stanley Morrison return, and I expect
6’5” JC transfer Alex Wheat to step in immediately. For a team losing six starters including the
conference offensive MVP, the Aggies are extremely well set to recover and
improve. Much was smart recruiting but I
think even more was Andersen and newly promoted offensive coordinator Matt
Wells installing more packages. I believe
they got a little “addition by subtraction” when former playcaller Dave Baldwin
left for Colorado State. Wells is a
former Utah State quarterback that has learned from some high octane guys at
Tulsa (Graham, Kragthorpe) and Louisville (Petrino). With a weapon like Keeton to play with, I
expect to see a radically different offense this season.
I won’t mince words – that offense better be high octane
because this defense is a diesel. It’s
slow, but hard working and solid. In
fact, this might be the slowest defense I’ve ever seen at the FBS level. It’s amazing that an old defensive coach like
Andersen doesn’t recruit faster players on this side of the ball. Losing three-time all 1st team WAC
LB Bobby Wagner is going to hurt. As
stated earlier, it’s going to be very tough to replace someone at this level
that was a top-50 NFL draftee. Koskan
and Garner filled the middle admirably, and Wagner’s running buddy at LB - Kyle
Gallager – will be missed. Bojay Filimoeatu is a converted DE that is capable
but playing out of position. None of the
Aggie secondary could outrun Chuckie Keeton.
Film doesn’t lie, and DB Jumanne Roberston doesn’t
run a 4.4. Neither does Nevin
Lawson or Brian Suite. I’m just not
impressed from what I watched, heard, and read.
However, they do get to play five of the worst teams in FBS – Idaho, UNLV,
New Mexico State, Texas State, and UTSA. I think some warts will be hidden.
Tyler Bennett is probably the best punter in the WAC and
Kerwynn Williams is one of the top two or three returnmen. Josh Thompson is a perfectly average kicker
and is accurate out to 48-50 yards. They
won’t cost you any games but I’m not sure any of these guys can win you one.
Best Case
Scenario? We get The Chuckie
Show. Keeton morphs into a shorter
version of Cam Newton and all eyes are on him after the Aggies upset Utah. A comeback comes up just short in Madison as
the Badgers overpower the smaller Aggies.
The week off heals the dinged Utah State lines up enough to polish off
their old offensive coordinator in Fort Collins, and the Aggies pound Vegas at
home.
Chuckie walks out of Provo with a win, an unofficial Utah
state title, and national respect. The
Spartans’ D gets overwhelmed in San Jose the next week. A stretch with New Mexico State, UTSA, and Texas
State shows not to be a problem.
Louisiana Tech torches the slow defense as Keeton keeps his team in a
wildly entertaining game, and Utah State scores on their last possession to
stun the Dawgs in Ruston. Idaho shows
not to be a problem and the best Aggie football season since 1972 ends with a
win in a Potato Bowl rematch with Ohio.
Other side of the
coin? Kennedy beats out Keeton, who
publicly announces his desire to transfer back to Texas. They start 2-3 before losing by 40 to Brigham
Young. San Jose pounds them up the week
after the Coogs do, and they narrowly escape New Mexico State. The Aggies muster enough to beat UTSA in the
dome, and some hope is in place after they get their fourth win against Texas
State. Louisiana Tech hangs 70 on that
slow defense and breaks the teams psyche, and then they show no heart in a home
loss to Idaho.
2012 Schedule
Aug. 30 Southern Utah (W)
Sept. 7 Utah (L)
Sept. 15 @ Wisconsin (L)
Sept. 22 @ Colorado State (W)
Sept. 29 UNLV (W)
Oct. 5 @ BYU (L)
Oct. 13 @ San Jose State (W)
Oct. 20 New Mexico State (W)
Oct. 27 @ UTSA (W)
Nov. 3 Texas State (W)
Nov. 17 @ Louisiana Tech (L)
Nov. 24 Idaho (W)
Aug. 30 Southern Utah (W)
Sept. 7 Utah (L)
Sept. 15 @ Wisconsin (L)
Sept. 22 @ Colorado State (W)
Sept. 29 UNLV (W)
Oct. 5 @ BYU (L)
Oct. 13 @ San Jose State (W)
Oct. 20 New Mexico State (W)
Oct. 27 @ UTSA (W)
Nov. 3 Texas State (W)
Nov. 17 @ Louisiana Tech (L)
Nov. 24 Idaho (W)
My pick: 8-4, 5-1 WAC (2nd)
Podcast
Last night I sat in on the Coker Chronicles (UTSA) podcast. Link is here if you'd like to listen in.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Preview: San Jose State
San Jose State University Spartans
San Jose, California
Established: 1857
First football team: 1893
Undergraduates: 26,796
Fun fact: Bill Walsh and Dick
Vermeil played for the Spartans in the 50’s.
That makes SJSU one of only three schools to have multiple Super Bowl
winning coaches.
Alums you’ve heard of: former
NFL QB Jeff Garcia, Lindsey Buckingham and Stevie Nicks of Fleetwood Mac,
competitive eater Joey Chestnut, deceased former Astro (and NL MVP) Ken
Caminiti, Olympic sprinter and gold medalist Tommie Smith (of gloved Black
Power salute fame)
Coach: Mike
MacIntyre (6-19, entering 3rd season)
2011 record: 5-7
(4-4 WAC, tied – 4th)
Rewind: The scheduling gods
weren't too friendly to the young Spartans in 2011, opening at BCS-bound
Stanford (L, 57-3) and at the Cardinal's Pac-12 mate UCLA (L, 27-17). Nevada then came to town for their final WAC
opener and prevailed (W, 17-14). SJSU
finally shook off the beatings and beat New Mexico State (W, 34-24) and
Colorado State in Fort Collins (W, 38-31), their first road win since November
2008.
Then things started getting
strange. BYU overcame three turnovers in
their win in Provo (L, 29-16) to put SJSU at 2-4, 1-1 in conference play. I watched one of the ugliest games I think
I've ever seen the following week, a twelve turnover slopfest versus the dearly
departed Hawaii Warriors. Six of those
came by the Spartans in the second half, allowing Hawaii to come back from a
20-7 hole to a 21-20 lead by the time the fourth quarter rolled around. Hawaii scored again to make it 27-20, but
then Duke Ihenacho of SJSU ran a blocked PAT back despite a terrible cramp to
cut it to 27-22. Then some more turnovers
happened, as expected. Two missed field
goals, a punt, and a fumble later, something magical occurred.
With 36 seconds left on the
clock, senior QB Matt Faulkner hit WR Chandler Jones on a 37 yard touchdown (W,
28-27) to complete an 87 yard drive, tying their longest of the season to
date. San Jose State, winners of three
games total over the two seasons prior, had won three of their last four.
After giving up 500 yards and
38 points in three quarters, the Spartans lost in Ruston (L,38-28) to the eventual
conference champion LA Tech Bulldogs.
SJSU scored the first twenty and last seven points versus Idaho, but are
outscored 32-2 in between (L, 32-29).
Kicker Jens Alvernik set a Spartan record with four field goals and San
Jose was up over Utah State in Logan 33-21 with five minutes left, and gave up
the 13 points necessary to lose, the last on a 21 yard pass with less than a
minute remaining (L, 34-33). At this
point, they are assured of a losing record as 3-4 slid to 3-7.
A 465 yard offensive explosion
carried SJSU to a win over Navy (W, 27-24) and a ball controlling ground game’s
final drive of 2011 ended any chance Fresno State had of a comeback (W, 27-24),
sending the hated Bulldogs into the Mountain West with a loss. This finished the Spartans season at 5-7,
their best finish since a 6-6 season in 2008.
Drafted in 2012: 0 (Duke Ihenacho signed a free agent deal with
the Broncos.)
Offensive starters lost: 6 (QB Matt Faulkner, RB Brandon Rutley, OL Fred
Koloto, OL Moa Ngatuvi)
Defensive starters lost: 7
(DB Duke Ihenacho, CB Peyton Thompson, DE Mohamed Marah, CB Brandon Driver, DT
Ja'Rodd Watson, DT Pablo Garcia)
Top returnees: TE
Ryan Otten, WR Noel Grigsby, OL David Quessenberry, LB Keith Smith, RB De’Leon
Eskridge, OL Nicholas Kaspar, WR Jabari Carr, DT Anthony Larceval, WR Chandler
Jones, DT Travis Johnson, CB Ronnie Yell, OL Nicholas Kasper, LB Vince
Buhagiar, S James Orth, WR Jabari Carr, RB Tyler Ervin, OG Moa Ngatuvai
2012 outlook: San Jose has the best tight end in the
conference (Otten), a guy who led the Big Ten’s Minnesota Golden Gophers in
rushing (Eskridge), and a man who caught 89 balls last year (Grigsby). Who’s going to get them the ball?
Another alum of the Big Ten Conference
was supposed to play quarterback for the 2012 Spartans: Tate Forcier, formerly
of the Michigan Wolverines. Apparently he’d rather hold a clipboard and get
paid in Hamilton, Ontario. Coach Mac has some options, the best looking like
transfer QB David Fales of Monterey Peninsula College. The former Nevada signee will have a daunting
task ahead of him. MacIntyre is known
for being a demanding coach and there’s three other non-incumbents hell bent on
taking this job. Fales should hold on,
however.
Both lines are thin, and the Spartans did not take the
juco route, opting to try and bulk up some glaringly light high school players. One lineman signee, Fernando Villanueva,
chose to stay home over offers from Pac 12 schools. He’s probably the best bet to help out
immediately. The 6-foot-6, 280-pound
three-star prospect’s size is only rivaled on the enrolled offensive line by
David Quessenberry.
The loss of Duke Ihenacho in the secondary will be felt
immediately. He was the first San Jose
State football player to earn first-team All-Western Athletic Conference honors
three times (2008, 2009, and 2011). The
Spartans have to replace three starters in the defensive backfield. From what I can see, the talent is there to
do so but the void in leadership on defense has to be made up somewhere. My money is on LB Vince Buhagiar, whom I
believe will play on Sundays in a couple of years.
This is a good year for them to be their last in the WAC
as the league has never been this week, with the Spartans having to rebuild
under center and both lines. I think
they’ll struggle with Stanford, Utah State and Louisiana Tech. They should be able to beat UC-Davis, UTSA,
Texas State, Idaho, and New Mexico State.
I’m of the opinion that they might catch Brigham Young off their game a
bit at Spartan Stadium, but I don’t think SJSU’s quite there yet.
One last thought.
If MacIntyre leads this team to an 8 win season in 2012, he’s gone. He played for his dad at Vanderbilt and then
Georgia Tech in the 80’s, Mac’s recruiting prowess is well known from his days
in the SEC and ACC, and this is his first job west of Dallas. I believe he’ll return to Duke as head coach
after they fire David Cutcliffe. Coach
Mac‘s a Southern boy that turned around his first program he’s been the head
coach at in a 20-plus year career. He’s
part of the Parcells coaching tree and has position experience on both sides of
the ball.
Best Case
Scenario? Fales steps in and does a
better job than Faulkner ever dreamed of doing.
Duct tape and some tough love in the weight room by Strength &
Conditioning Coach Dave Forman fix these lines well enough to handle the
depleted WAC. After losing by ten in the
opener to Stanford, they catch fire and scorch Davis and Colorado State. A physical game at San Diego State results in
a grind-it-out win, and the defense bottles up the option in Annapolis. Suddenly, the white-hot Spartans surprise Utah
State and tear through four teams picked at the bottom of the league. They take revenge from the BYU game of a
season ago to get to 10-1 before a gigantic mid-major showdown with Louisiana
Tech to end each school’s final WAC football season. They bow out after a much closer than
expected game with the Bulldogs in front of 32,000 fans at Spartan
Stadium. The rebirth of Spartan Fever
leads to a berth in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco after the ACC
declines to send an opponent cross country.
Other side of the
coin? MacIntyre never settles on a
quarterback after Fales shows inconsistency, injuries cause him to burn
redshirts on woefully unprepared freshmen, and San Jose regresses back to their
time when they won three games in two years.
They would be 2-5 after narrowly winning in the Alamodome versus the Baby
Birds, and then finish the string with five straight losses. Students go back
to wearing Cal and Stanford gear, and watch the Niners and the Raiders on
Sundays.
2012 Schedule
Sept. 1 @ Stanford (L)
Sept. 8 UC-Davis (W)
Sept. 15 Colorado State (W)
Sept. 22 @ San Diego State (L)
Sept. 29 @ Navy (W)
Oct. 13 Utah State (L)
Oct. 20 @ UTSA (W)
Oct. 27 Texas State (W)
Nov. 3 @ Idaho (W)
Nov. 10 @ New Mexico State (W)
Nov. 17 BYU (L)
Nov. 24 LA Tech (L)
Sept. 1 @ Stanford (L)
Sept. 8 UC-Davis (W)
Sept. 15 Colorado State (W)
Sept. 22 @ San Diego State (L)
Sept. 29 @ Navy (W)
Oct. 13 Utah State (L)
Oct. 20 @ UTSA (W)
Oct. 27 Texas State (W)
Nov. 3 @ Idaho (W)
Nov. 10 @ New Mexico State (W)
Nov. 17 BYU (L)
Nov. 24 LA Tech (L)
My pick: 7-5, 4-2 WAC (3rd)
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