WAC
Utah -7 @ Utah State
-- They both torched Big Sky competition last week, but I think Chuckie's just getting started. I think they win at home in a very close one. I think they'll cover either way. USU 27, Utah 24
NMSU +21 @ Ohio
-- This has been sitting in the back of my mind as a potential upset all week, but I think Ohio probably is a better team as of this upcoming Saturday. The Aggies won at Minnesota and at New Mexico last season so they aren't allergic to the road. Should cover. Ohio 31, NMSU 21.
Idaho +16 @ Bowling Green
Sniff test: BGSU hung with Florida at the Swamp and Idaho got throttled by FCS Eastern Washington at home. I don't even think Dominique Blackmon at QB is enough to compensate here. BGSU 28, Idaho 3.
Texas Tech -16 @ Texas State
I've been saying all week we don't really know anything about Texas State or Houston until this game and the Cougs tilt with LA Tech. That said, it's a home game, a new stadium debut, and it's coming off the Houston win. I'm not a believer yet, but I do think they can cover at home. Texas Tech 28, Texas State 21.
LA Tech -3 @ Houston
A rogue voter gave Texas State enough votes to be #35 in the AP Poll. LA Tech probably deserves to be higher. I think Houston might have some ads on Craigslist for football personnel come Sunday. LA Tech 48, Houston 10.
UTSA plays Texas A&M-Commerce and there's no line set for this game.
I'll post the Sun Belt odds separately tonight when I get home.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Premiere Podcast
My first WAC-centric podcast, done with Adam of Coker Chronicles, is up: PODCAST
Joe Bob says check it out.
Joe Bob says check it out.
Monday, September 3, 2012
Overreaction in Houston
In the aftermath of Texas State's tremendous win over the Houston Cougars, it was announced this morning that UH first year offensive coordinator Mike Nesbitt resigned/quit/fell on his sword/whatever. This was a terrible decision by the powers that be in Houston, and let me tell you why.
- Interim offensive coordinator Travis Bush is also in his first year, and any experience that he's had with an Air Raid offense comes from when he was hired in February.
- It reeks of desperation. What chance does this staff really have going into the LA Tech game this weekend? Last time the team played poorly, one of them was "fired".
- This is turning a teachable moment for the entire team at Houston, coaches included, into a blame game. Outside a miracle turnaround under Bush - highly doubtful - this entire season is tossed into the wind. Continuity was the name of the game when Nesbitt was brought in from SFA to coach the same offense that was already installed. That was cancelled after one performance.
- This staff might have had a chance to improve and win some league games, and build upon that for a debut in the Big East next season. Now if this season becomes a dumpster fire, and the anticipation of opening a new stadium in 2014 gets dampened, they're all gone. National coaching search, new offense and defense by a million dollar coach, lots of transfers, and good odds of being an afterthought for several years.
- Next two games? LA Tech's Air Raid and a trip to Pasadena to play a revived UCLA team. News flash: UH was starting 0-3 anyway after Saturday's performance, with two WAC losses. Sorry for your luck.
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Yesterday.
As you know, I watched both UTSA and Texas State win yesterday. Two very impressive wins. Let's get started.
UTSA put together a gameplan full of duct tape and baling wire, opened the offensive playbook wide, and found a way to scrap together a win. Twelve players got touches on offense. It seemed like Bennett was bound and determined to pick on Starling, but the Jaguars passed for less than 200 yards. A gaggle of timely turnovers and a very smart retooling of the depth chart offset a ridiculous amount of UTSA penalties. That created a wildly entertaining game and got a whole bunch of "firsts" out of the way.
(1) They pass the eye test. Sure, UTSA's first win in FBS was against another newbie. There was a lot of raw emotion that showed this game meant more to the players than any of the other crap we wax poetic about. But I watched Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, San Jose State, Texas State, and them play actual football games this week. UTSA fought through losing two defensive starters before getting on the plane and won on the road, which they've never done before. They're not a start-up anymore and none of this "first" shit needs to apply from this point forward.
(2) Personnel: They need to consider leaving Kurfels at rover and rolling with Terry and Reeves at linebacker. Wort can spell him. I loved the playcalling on offense, using certain players to do certain things. There were some notable gaffes but it was worth it to see what using the entire playbook can do. That leads to a lot of happy, contributing players. The OL took a while to congeal, while the DL wasn't very effective until the fourth quarter.
(3) Looking ahead: D2 A&M-Commerce is a tasty treat to start what should be a well-attended home schedule. FCS SC State crushed Georgia State 33-6 in the Georgia Dome, UTSA's third opponent. Then another D2 game with Northwestern Oklahoma State back in San Antonio. 4-0 going into New Mexico State for the Runners first WAC contest is a strong possibility.
This team is flawed and incomplete, a work in progress. Faith is usually a part of completing matters, and the epic highs and sudden lows they went through on Saturday are as well. The Baby Birds grew up on Saturday getting that win in muggy Mobile, and it doesn't really matter that it was against one of the worst teams in the country when they're playing in a conference full of them.
One last thing: I'm writing the backstory for why I think they need to keep playing if you didn't know: South Alabama is a year ahead of UTSA and a Sun Belt team this season. They came to San Antonio last season and UTSA kicker Ianno's gamewinning kick is blocked. They lose and wind up under .500 for the year.
The same situation comes up this year and Ianno has probably kicked this a million times in his head, and it doesn't matter that it's 52 yards away, two days after a tropical storm, on 110 degree eight year old Fieldturf in 90% humidity for the fourth time of the day. That thing was good from 62.
--
The funny thing about the Texas State game is how it was executed. I remember talking to Justin about how we would gameplan Houston in 2010. We'd run the ball almost every play, change formations and run down the play clock constantly, and keep that damn Air Raid off the field. That's not exactly what happened - Rutherford was 8-9 in the first quarter alone - but the Bobcats finished with 52 carries for 248 yards, and held the ball for nearly three quarters worth of football.
The statement made by shutting down Houston was different from UTSA's "arrival". This was a feature, a showing of Texas State football to people that pay attention to football outside the scrub ranks. As my buddy at the top in the yellow shirt says, "Texas State could be the next Boise State." We laughed, as he says that about everyone in any of his prior and current leagues. Say it again, Karl, because people want to hear you. This was about believing it after watching something Boise might have done in their first years of the climb.
(1) Fran's back, folks. Houston was held to 13 points or below for the first time since September 18th, 2010. I wondered why Terrance Broadway was the backup QB at ULL and not at Houston, because it became clear that Piland isn't nearly as good as the next heir to the revived Houston statgod quarterback dynasty needed to be. This was exploited by the secondary's regular abuse of the Cougar receivers. Texas State played a tough, fast, physical football team - and roughed them up.
(2) I think it's finally clear why Fran is never going to name a starting quarterback. Rutherford is durable enough to take 20-something hits a game plus run upfield, and now he beat Houston. Shaun will start for the rest of the season unless he is injured or until he fucks up. I think asking him to be both a quarterback and a running back when he was more suited to be a wide receiver was a bad idea last season. I think Rutherford caught a couple of breaks but he's much, much more improved than I thought he would be. More on this at the bottom.
(3) Bigger, faster, stronger, sure. Different? Yeah. It's hard to believe that Texas State looked like were going to wreck Houston until they lined up. I noticed something from my illegal Eastern European stream. Curry ran past the Houston defense. The secondary was outright violent to those Houston receivers. The line held up. And for all the talk of needing a second year for Fran's system to work, there's a true freshman from Alabama starting at WR. I think it's because of something else.
Does anyone remember how Sam Houston came out of nowhere running that goofy offense with the Wildcat as the base formation last season? Didn't last night's game sort of look like that - with new coach Jeff Conway at offensive coordinator? Oh, the irony. Bob Debeese, the former Bobcat head coach and alum, ran that offense at Sam Houston, with Conway as assistant head coach. He's now the offensive coordinator at New Mexico, probably the worst program in the country. They pounded FCS Southern last night 66-21 using two quarterbacks. One was a 6'4" 230 lb freshman that ran 8 times for 88 yards and only threw twice, the other a two year starter that threw nine times and ran only twice. The backs had 51 carries for 347 yards.
Sam Houston went from unranked to the FCS title game using a 5'10" guy from Galveston as the Wildcat, Richard Sincere, making for an unlikely All-American and Southland Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2011. I think this version of the Franchione spread offensapalooza now shares some of the same elements, but instead of putting a WR as the Wildcat, they're using Rutherford.
--
Watched some Lamar and some Alabama but I couldn't take my eyes off the Texas State game. It was just so unexpected, so quirky and fascinating. I had a great day of football and got to watch two upsets by two teams that combined I probably know more about than any other human being. Yesterday was just so damn important to those teams. Texas State gets another chance at Cinderella next week, in what will probably be the most critical game in school history. UTSA? All I can tell you there is that team isn't going to finish last in the WAC and will almost certainly start the year 4-0, and I'd guess six is a worthwhile goal.
UTSA put together a gameplan full of duct tape and baling wire, opened the offensive playbook wide, and found a way to scrap together a win. Twelve players got touches on offense. It seemed like Bennett was bound and determined to pick on Starling, but the Jaguars passed for less than 200 yards. A gaggle of timely turnovers and a very smart retooling of the depth chart offset a ridiculous amount of UTSA penalties. That created a wildly entertaining game and got a whole bunch of "firsts" out of the way.
(1) They pass the eye test. Sure, UTSA's first win in FBS was against another newbie. There was a lot of raw emotion that showed this game meant more to the players than any of the other crap we wax poetic about. But I watched Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, San Jose State, Texas State, and them play actual football games this week. UTSA fought through losing two defensive starters before getting on the plane and won on the road, which they've never done before. They're not a start-up anymore and none of this "first" shit needs to apply from this point forward.
(2) Personnel: They need to consider leaving Kurfels at rover and rolling with Terry and Reeves at linebacker. Wort can spell him. I loved the playcalling on offense, using certain players to do certain things. There were some notable gaffes but it was worth it to see what using the entire playbook can do. That leads to a lot of happy, contributing players. The OL took a while to congeal, while the DL wasn't very effective until the fourth quarter.
(3) Looking ahead: D2 A&M-Commerce is a tasty treat to start what should be a well-attended home schedule. FCS SC State crushed Georgia State 33-6 in the Georgia Dome, UTSA's third opponent. Then another D2 game with Northwestern Oklahoma State back in San Antonio. 4-0 going into New Mexico State for the Runners first WAC contest is a strong possibility.
This team is flawed and incomplete, a work in progress. Faith is usually a part of completing matters, and the epic highs and sudden lows they went through on Saturday are as well. The Baby Birds grew up on Saturday getting that win in muggy Mobile, and it doesn't really matter that it was against one of the worst teams in the country when they're playing in a conference full of them.
One last thing: I'm writing the backstory for why I think they need to keep playing if you didn't know: South Alabama is a year ahead of UTSA and a Sun Belt team this season. They came to San Antonio last season and UTSA kicker Ianno's gamewinning kick is blocked. They lose and wind up under .500 for the year.
The same situation comes up this year and Ianno has probably kicked this a million times in his head, and it doesn't matter that it's 52 yards away, two days after a tropical storm, on 110 degree eight year old Fieldturf in 90% humidity for the fourth time of the day. That thing was good from 62.
--
The funny thing about the Texas State game is how it was executed. I remember talking to Justin about how we would gameplan Houston in 2010. We'd run the ball almost every play, change formations and run down the play clock constantly, and keep that damn Air Raid off the field. That's not exactly what happened - Rutherford was 8-9 in the first quarter alone - but the Bobcats finished with 52 carries for 248 yards, and held the ball for nearly three quarters worth of football.
The statement made by shutting down Houston was different from UTSA's "arrival". This was a feature, a showing of Texas State football to people that pay attention to football outside the scrub ranks. As my buddy at the top in the yellow shirt says, "Texas State could be the next Boise State." We laughed, as he says that about everyone in any of his prior and current leagues. Say it again, Karl, because people want to hear you. This was about believing it after watching something Boise might have done in their first years of the climb.
(1) Fran's back, folks. Houston was held to 13 points or below for the first time since September 18th, 2010. I wondered why Terrance Broadway was the backup QB at ULL and not at Houston, because it became clear that Piland isn't nearly as good as the next heir to the revived Houston statgod quarterback dynasty needed to be. This was exploited by the secondary's regular abuse of the Cougar receivers. Texas State played a tough, fast, physical football team - and roughed them up.
(2) I think it's finally clear why Fran is never going to name a starting quarterback. Rutherford is durable enough to take 20-something hits a game plus run upfield, and now he beat Houston. Shaun will start for the rest of the season unless he is injured or until he fucks up. I think asking him to be both a quarterback and a running back when he was more suited to be a wide receiver was a bad idea last season. I think Rutherford caught a couple of breaks but he's much, much more improved than I thought he would be. More on this at the bottom.
(3) Bigger, faster, stronger, sure. Different? Yeah. It's hard to believe that Texas State looked like were going to wreck Houston until they lined up. I noticed something from my illegal Eastern European stream. Curry ran past the Houston defense. The secondary was outright violent to those Houston receivers. The line held up. And for all the talk of needing a second year for Fran's system to work, there's a true freshman from Alabama starting at WR. I think it's because of something else.
Does anyone remember how Sam Houston came out of nowhere running that goofy offense with the Wildcat as the base formation last season? Didn't last night's game sort of look like that - with new coach Jeff Conway at offensive coordinator? Oh, the irony. Bob Debeese, the former Bobcat head coach and alum, ran that offense at Sam Houston, with Conway as assistant head coach. He's now the offensive coordinator at New Mexico, probably the worst program in the country. They pounded FCS Southern last night 66-21 using two quarterbacks. One was a 6'4" 230 lb freshman that ran 8 times for 88 yards and only threw twice, the other a two year starter that threw nine times and ran only twice. The backs had 51 carries for 347 yards.
Sam Houston went from unranked to the FCS title game using a 5'10" guy from Galveston as the Wildcat, Richard Sincere, making for an unlikely All-American and Southland Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2011. I think this version of the Franchione spread offensapalooza now shares some of the same elements, but instead of putting a WR as the Wildcat, they're using Rutherford.
--
Watched some Lamar and some Alabama but I couldn't take my eyes off the Texas State game. It was just so unexpected, so quirky and fascinating. I had a great day of football and got to watch two upsets by two teams that combined I probably know more about than any other human being. Yesterday was just so damn important to those teams. Texas State gets another chance at Cinderella next week, in what will probably be the most critical game in school history. UTSA? All I can tell you there is that team isn't going to finish last in the WAC and will almost certainly start the year 4-0, and I'd guess six is a worthwhile goal.
Friday, August 31, 2012
realignment: Big East edition
Here's some quick thoughts on the Big East wanting to go to 14 teams in football and hold a championship game.
(1) Who they have now: UConn, Rutgers, USF, Cincy and Louisville are full members. Temple is an associate member in football starting this season. They are adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, USF, and the rest of Temple athletics next season. Boise State and San Diego State will join for football-only next season. Navy will join for football-only in 2015.
Running totals: 2013 - 12. 2015 - 13.
(2) How do they plan on making divisions out of this dog's breakfast? Navy, Temple, and UCF are all eastern teams. Cincy and Louisville are less than 100 miles apart in a league that spans from Storrs to San Diego. Same with UCF and USF, Temple and Rutgers.
This is the 2015 league divided by the Mississippi River:
East: UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Temple, Memphis, Navy (9)
West: Houston, SMU, Boise State, SDSU (4)
(3) This is what I think will happen:
East: UConn, Rutgers, USF, UCF, Navy, Temple...and either Army or Villanova.
West: Houston, SMU, Boise, SDSU, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati
I like Army to join over Villanova. This preserves their annual game with Navy and Villanova has been wishy-washy about moving up for two years now. There's no stadium or attendance issues in West Point.
(4) What will this do to the rest of the landscape?
A move to 14 puts the Big East with the same numbers as the SEC and ACC. Both will remain ready to get picked apart by the 10 team Big 12. Even bigger buyouts start to appear in conference bylaws.
The West will not really be affected until Air Force might be lured into an arrangement where a nine game conference schedule - with two permanent cross-conference opponents - is proposed. The BE-West is a nice fit for them if they can wrangle permanent games with Army and Navy. Navy will take Air Force and SDSU. Army wouldn't mind playing in Houston or Dallas every other year. Team #16 would be an East Coast team and there's several to choose from. At that point, I think there would start to see the same tensions created by the WAC 16 team "project" and there would be a move to split again, this time over geographic lines.
The hole in the Mountain West could be filled by either of the independent teams or Texas State. If Air Force wound up leaving, I could see the MWC taking all three of Idaho, NMSU, and TXST to create a 12 team conference and get a championship game. I don't think UTEP is willing to bail on a division with Rice, UNT, and UTSA - they need the in-state exposure. There's also a possibility that they would stay at 9.
As always, I'll keep an ear to the ground and let you know what's happening.
(1) Who they have now: UConn, Rutgers, USF, Cincy and Louisville are full members. Temple is an associate member in football starting this season. They are adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, USF, and the rest of Temple athletics next season. Boise State and San Diego State will join for football-only next season. Navy will join for football-only in 2015.
Running totals: 2013 - 12. 2015 - 13.
(2) How do they plan on making divisions out of this dog's breakfast? Navy, Temple, and UCF are all eastern teams. Cincy and Louisville are less than 100 miles apart in a league that spans from Storrs to San Diego. Same with UCF and USF, Temple and Rutgers.
This is the 2015 league divided by the Mississippi River:
East: UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Temple, Memphis, Navy (9)
West: Houston, SMU, Boise State, SDSU (4)
(3) This is what I think will happen:
East: UConn, Rutgers, USF, UCF, Navy, Temple...and either Army or Villanova.
West: Houston, SMU, Boise, SDSU, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati
I like Army to join over Villanova. This preserves their annual game with Navy and Villanova has been wishy-washy about moving up for two years now. There's no stadium or attendance issues in West Point.
(4) What will this do to the rest of the landscape?
A move to 14 puts the Big East with the same numbers as the SEC and ACC. Both will remain ready to get picked apart by the 10 team Big 12. Even bigger buyouts start to appear in conference bylaws.
The West will not really be affected until Air Force might be lured into an arrangement where a nine game conference schedule - with two permanent cross-conference opponents - is proposed. The BE-West is a nice fit for them if they can wrangle permanent games with Army and Navy. Navy will take Air Force and SDSU. Army wouldn't mind playing in Houston or Dallas every other year. Team #16 would be an East Coast team and there's several to choose from. At that point, I think there would start to see the same tensions created by the WAC 16 team "project" and there would be a move to split again, this time over geographic lines.
The hole in the Mountain West could be filled by either of the independent teams or Texas State. If Air Force wound up leaving, I could see the MWC taking all three of Idaho, NMSU, and TXST to create a 12 team conference and get a championship game. I don't think UTEP is willing to bail on a division with Rice, UNT, and UTSA - they need the in-state exposure. There's also a possibility that they would stay at 9.
As always, I'll keep an ear to the ground and let you know what's happening.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Pick 'em: Issac Edition
Wednesday's the best day of the week for me to break these out, so here goes:
(I use Caesar's lines since if I was in Vegas, I'd be at their sportsbook)
WAC
UTSA +6.5 @ South Alabama
-- That half point makes all the difference. I don't think either team is much better or worse than each other, and fully anticipate the Runners to cover. South Alabama 24, UTSA 21.
SJSU +26 @ Stanford
-- I think Stanford is a little overlooked in a league with USC and Oregon, and this is a pretty good spread. I'll take the Cardinal here. Stanford 49, SJSU 20.
Texas State +37 @ Houston
-- The Bobcats are using two QB's and trying to keep up with the Cougar air attack on defense. That said, this isn't 2010 anymore. Houston 42, Texas State 31.
LA Tech (vs Texas A&M) is postponed until October 13th. NMSU (vs Sac State), Idaho (vs EWU), and USU (vs SUU) were not listed.
Sun Belt
Troy -6 @ UAB
-- Each team only won three games last season and I don't think Troy's improved so much that they deserve to give six away playing on the road instate. I think they'll win, but probably in a sloppy game decided by a field goal. Troy 13, UAB 10.
UNT + 43 @ LSU
-- This will be one of the ugliest games of the season. Then again, the Bayou Bengals only beat FCS Northwestern State by 43 last season. I think this defense will try for a shutout and fall slightly short. LSU 51, UNT 3.
FIU +3.5 @ Duke
-- Duke's a little better than most people think and FIU lost NFL-level talent. The Panthers will get better but I think this one's a goner. Duke 24, FIU 17.
Arkansas State +37 @ Oregon
-- I love this one. Malzahn knows Oregon and game-planned for them for over a month in 2010 at Auburn, and now he had an off-season to do it. They won't win, but the Red Wolves are going to add to their fan base in a very entertaining contest. Oregon 48, Arkansas State 31.
Florida Atlantic (v Wagner), ULL (v Lamar), MTSU (vs McNeese), and WKU (vs Austin Peay) weren't listed. ULM has a bye week.
(I use Caesar's lines since if I was in Vegas, I'd be at their sportsbook)
WAC
UTSA +6.5 @ South Alabama
-- That half point makes all the difference. I don't think either team is much better or worse than each other, and fully anticipate the Runners to cover. South Alabama 24, UTSA 21.
SJSU +26 @ Stanford
-- I think Stanford is a little overlooked in a league with USC and Oregon, and this is a pretty good spread. I'll take the Cardinal here. Stanford 49, SJSU 20.
Texas State +37 @ Houston
-- The Bobcats are using two QB's and trying to keep up with the Cougar air attack on defense. That said, this isn't 2010 anymore. Houston 42, Texas State 31.
LA Tech (vs Texas A&M) is postponed until October 13th. NMSU (vs Sac State), Idaho (vs EWU), and USU (vs SUU) were not listed.
Sun Belt
Troy -6 @ UAB
-- Each team only won three games last season and I don't think Troy's improved so much that they deserve to give six away playing on the road instate. I think they'll win, but probably in a sloppy game decided by a field goal. Troy 13, UAB 10.
UNT + 43 @ LSU
-- This will be one of the ugliest games of the season. Then again, the Bayou Bengals only beat FCS Northwestern State by 43 last season. I think this defense will try for a shutout and fall slightly short. LSU 51, UNT 3.
FIU +3.5 @ Duke
-- Duke's a little better than most people think and FIU lost NFL-level talent. The Panthers will get better but I think this one's a goner. Duke 24, FIU 17.
Arkansas State +37 @ Oregon
-- I love this one. Malzahn knows Oregon and game-planned for them for over a month in 2010 at Auburn, and now he had an off-season to do it. They won't win, but the Red Wolves are going to add to their fan base in a very entertaining contest. Oregon 48, Arkansas State 31.
Florida Atlantic (v Wagner), ULL (v Lamar), MTSU (vs McNeese), and WKU (vs Austin Peay) weren't listed. ULM has a bye week.
video dump, 8/29
South Alabama head coach Joey Jones on Brando yesterday
NMSU press conference from yesterday
More with NMSU coach Walker
Franchione's press conference (Texas State)
KTSW talks to Franchione
Tyler Mayforth (@smdrtyler) addresses TXST QB's Rutherford and Arndt
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